POLAND: Zloty Prints Best Levels Since 2018, Finance Ministry Holds Bond Auction
Jan-29 08:08
- EUR/PLN attacked the key 4.20 figure yesterday, hitting its worst levels since 2018, in the absence of notable domestic releases. Bank Pocztowy Chief Economist Monika Kurtek said that this raises a question whether such a strong zloty should encourage the MPC to cut interest rates. Last week, ING wrote that the zloty is underpinned by a reassessment of Donald Trump's tariff threats, the NBP's hawkish monetary policy, and Poland's relatively limited exposure to potential disruptions in global trade. Meanwhile, Citi Handlowy wrote that the zloty might be drawing support from hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine (they quoted an increase in the number of relevant queries from investors). Furthermore, they noted that according to their analyses the sensitivity of inflation to the exchange rate increased in 2022, which should be good news for the MPC.
- Speaking to ISB News, MPC's Iwona Duda reaffirmed her view that the room for lowering interest rates may open towards the end of 2025, while a discussion on monetary easing could start in March. She called for caution in setting monetary policy amid the need to avoid stabilising inflation at elevated levels and suggested that the inflation projections published in March and July will provide crucial information on the optimal course of action.
- President Andrzej Duda's top aide Marcin Mastalerek said that there was an invitation from US President Donald Trump to meet in November but he "messed up" and failed to coordinate the calendars of the two leaders.
- The Finance Ministry is looking to sell PLN5bn-8bn of OK0127, PS0729, PS0130, WZ0330, DS1034 and IZ0836 bonds at an auction today.
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EURJPY TECHS: Has Cleared All Key Retracement Points
Dec-30 08:03
- RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31
- RES 3: 166.18 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 1: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 164.66 @ 08:02 GMT Dec 30
- SUP 1: 163.32 Low Dec 26
- SUP 2: 162.22/159.82 20-day EMA / Low Dec 18
- SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 157.87 Low Dec 09
A bullish condition in EURJPY remains intact and the cross is holding on to its recent gains. Price has breached all the relevant Fibonacci retracement points of the bear leg between Oct 31 - Dec 3. Sights are on 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would open 166.69, the Oct 31 high and the next major resistance. Initial firm support lies at 162.22, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
MNI: SWISS KOF DEC ECONOMIC BAROMETER 99.5
Dec-30 08:00
- MNI: SWISS KOF DEC ECONOMIC BAROMETER 99.5
MNI: SPAIN DEC FLASH HICP +0.4% M/M, +2.8% Y/Y
Dec-30 08:00
- MNI: SPAIN DEC FLASH HICP +0.4% M/M, +2.8% Y/Y
- MNI: SPAIN DEC FLASH CPI +0.4% M/M, +2.8% Y/Y
- MNI: SPAIN DEC FLASH CORE CPI +2.6% Y/Y
