Political betting markets have shifted in favour of right-wing libertarian candidate Javier Milei in the last hours before the presidential election second round takes place on 19 Nov. Milei is now afforded a 58.0% implied probability of becoming president, compared to Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa's 42.0%. MNI's Election Preview for the run-off can be found here.

• Polls close at 1800 local time on 19 Nov, with exit poll data and results expected to start arriving after 2100 local time (1900ET, 0000GMT, 0900JST) as mass dissemination of data is illegal for three hours after the closure of polling stations under National Law 25,610.
• The already foul-tempered election risks turning in an even more bitter direction, with the FT reporting that Milei's sister has formally accused the military police force that deals with handling and transporting ballot boxes of participating in a "colossal fraud" in the 22 Oct first round (won by Massa).
• FT: "The complaint, which cites sources “who wish to remain anonymous for safety reasons”, alleges that police in some regions “swap the content of ballot boxes and documentation for others, which they modify in favour of the ruling party and Sergio Massa, which considerably alters the election result”."
• In response, Security Minister Aníbal Fernández, part of the left-wing Peronist Homeland Union backing Massa, called the allegations "cheap and crude", stating that he would lodge his own complaint against Milei's Freedom Advances alliance.

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %

Source: electionbettingodds.com, Betfair, Polymarket, Smarkets