The debt limit showdown has weighed heavily on the approval rating of President Biden as months of rancorous rhetoric between the White House and House Republicans appears set to deliver a significant political victory to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).

• Biden has seen his approval rate collapse from 44.8% in late February to 41.6% today, according to RealClearPolitics' aggregated approval rating.
• Biden remains the bookmakers' favourite to retain the White House in 2024 but former President Donald Trump has closed the margin since he appeared on a CNN town hall last week. According to data from Smarkets, Biden has an implied probability of 37% of winning in 2024, compared to 28% for Trump.
• Biden's approval rating may fall further in the coming days if details of an emerging deal to raise the debt ceiling favour the GOP, as expected.
• Biden's standing may also be hit by the cancellation of a key summit in Australia where he was expected to tout unity in the Indo-Pacific region with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Figure 1: President Biden Approval Rating

Source: RealClearPolitics