The Colorado Supreme Court's ruling that disqualifies former President Donald Trump from appearing on the ballot in the state's presidential primary has seen a small decline in the Republican frontrunner's implied probability of winning the 2024 presidential election. The court ruled that Trump's alleged role in the 6 Jan 2021 riots at the Capitol amounted to an 'insurrection', and that under an 1868 provision to the US Constitution insurrectionists can be barred from running for office.

• Data from Smarkets shows Trump's implied probability of winning the presidency falling from 42.7% before the ruling to 38.8% presently. The primary beneficiary has not been incumbent President Joe Biden, but Trump's GOP primary opponent, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Her implied probability of winning the presidency has risen from 6.9% prior to the ruling to 8.7% currently.
• Courts in a number of other states are considering similar cases, and as is often the case in political rulings it could come down to the conservative/liberal split on various courts. All seven of Colorado's Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic governors, and even then the decision came to a 4-3 split in favour of barring Trump.
• Trump's legal team has stated that it will challenge the ruling, likely setting up a US Supreme Court showdown. Given that SCOTUS would prove the final arbiter of what constitutes an insurrection, the 6-3 split there in favour of conservatives could bolster Trump's chances of avoiding banishment from the ballot.

Source: Smarkets