European diesel cracks are expected to rise and “re-open the East-West arbitrage window,” according to Kpler via Bloomberg late last week.

• Gasoil/diesel supply is tightening driven by oil refiners west of the Suez Canal continuing to favour jet/kerosene production.
• European diesel yields are forecast to fall to the lowest this year at 45.7% in December compared to the seasonal average of 48%.
• “This is also a function of Europe’s lightening crude slate amid falling Middle Eastern exports and the ongoing Russian sanctions.”
• “This – and ARA diesel stocks currently approaching 5-year lows of 12.8m bbl – will likely mean a sharp rebound is due later this winter.”