The Euribor strip is -1.0 to +0.5 ticks through the Blues - outperforming the SONIA strip - as core EGBs recover from UK-data inspired lows.
- UK wage data - covered in detail above - came in firmer than expected and has weighed on STIR/global FI markets.
- However, ECB-dated OIS contracts have not seen meaningful pay-side flows following the data, with 118bps of cuts currently priced through 2024 (broadly in line with yesterday afternoon's levels).
- Today's regional data docket includes the German ZEW survey at 1000GMT/11CET, but main focus will be on the US CPI print at 1330GMT/1430CET.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-24 | 3.886 | -2.3 |
| Apr-24 | 3.763 | -14.7 |
| Jun-24 | 3.535 | -37.4 |
| Jul-24 | 3.328 | -58.1 |
| Sep-24 | 3.096 | -81.3 |
| Oct-24 | 2.918 | -99.2 |
| Dec-24 | 2.730 | -117.9 |
| Jan-25 | 2.583 | -132.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
