Swedish February retail sales volumes rose 0.5% M/M (vs a downwardly revised 0.2% prior) and 0.3% Y/Y (vs a downwardly revised 1.9% prior).

• On a 3m/3m SWDA adjusted basis, sales rose 0.9% in February (versus 0.6% prior), the 5th consecutive increase.
• Durable goods sales volumes rose 0.3% 3m/3m while consumables rose 0.4% 3m/3m.
• The gradual recovery of retail sales aligns with the Riksbank's view that household consumption should recover from the first half of 2024 onwards. The March MPR saw 2024 consumption forecasts revised higher to 2.0% Y/Y (vs 0.9% in the November MPR).
• The recovery also tracks rises in retail sentiment from the Economic Tendency Indicator, which has risen in each month since November 2023.
• However, the overall level of sales remains weak from a historical standpoint, and retail sentiment is still below the neutral 100 level.