• IPCA inflation data for February will be published at 1200GMT(0800ET) tomorrow, with consensus for a slight moderation in the annual headline rate of inflation to 4.44% y/y, from 4.51%. In m/m terms, consumer prices are expected to rise by 0.79%, vs. +0.42% previously. Regarding core inflation, Itaú expect IPCA Ex-3 to accelerate to 3.6% (3mma saar), from 3.2% in January, with higher underlying services still reflecting bank services readjustments.
  • Meanwhile, JP Morgan see core CPI decelerating from the highs of January, but still remaining roughly 1%-point above target, due to still high services inflation. While they see a significant chunk of this as temporary, the combination of still high core CPI and global uncertainties is likely to turn the BCB more cautious in its communication, in their view. JPM still expect 50bp cuts at the next two MPC meetings, but think the BCB may signal a possible pause in H2 at its meeting next week.
  • Separately, the BCB will also publish its weekly Focus survey tomorrow at 1125GMT(0725ET). Last week, the 2024 CPI inflation forecast edged lower, while the 2024 real GDP forecast was revised up for a third week running, to 1.77%.

BRAZIL: IPCA Inflation And BCB Focus Survey Due Tomorrow

Last updated at:Mar-11 18:06By: Keith Gyles
  • IPCA inflation data for February will be published at 1200GMT(0800ET) tomorrow, with consensus for a slight moderation in the annual headline rate of inflation to 4.44% y/y, from 4.51%. In m/m terms, consumer prices are expected to rise by 0.79%, vs. +0.42% previously. Regarding core inflation, Itaú expect IPCA Ex-3 to accelerate to 3.6% (3mma saar), from 3.2% in January, with higher underlying services still reflecting bank services readjustments.
  • Meanwhile, JP Morgan see core CPI decelerating from the highs of January, but still remaining roughly 1%-point above target, due to still high services inflation. While they see a significant chunk of this as temporary, the combination of still high core CPI and global uncertainties is likely to turn the BCB more cautious in its communication, in their view. JPM still expect 50bp cuts at the next two MPC meetings, but think the BCB may signal a possible pause in H2 at its meeting next week.
  • Separately, the BCB will also publish its weekly Focus survey tomorrow at 1125GMT(0725ET). Last week, the 2024 CPI inflation forecast edged lower, while the 2024 real GDP forecast was revised up for a third week running, to 1.77%.

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