Although Italian September industrial production was a tenth above consensus expectations at -0.4% M/M, this was offset by a one tenth downward revision to August’s print. On an annual basis, production fell 4.0% Y/Y (the -3.5% Y/Y consensus was formed of just five analysts, compared to 11 for the monthly reading).

• Overall, industrial production clearly remains subdued, consistent with the manufacturing PMI tracking below the neutral 50-handle since April. ISTAT’s manufacturing confidence series has also continued to deteriorate.
• On a 3m/3m basis, production fell 0.6% (vs 0.2% prior). This series has been negative for the last 18 consecutive months.
• Consumer goods production fell 3.5% Y/Y (vs -2.0% prior) and 1.0% on a 3m/3m basis. This was driven by weakness in non-durable goods.
• Intermediate and capital goods production was less negative than in August, but the 3m/3m performance deteriorated.
• Annual production of transport equipment fell 15.4% Y/Y. We will provide a more detailed update on vehicle production trends across the four major Eurozone countries in the coming days.