The Asian LNG price premium to the European natural gas benchmark widened in February, driven by tighter LNG supply, however, more a positive supply outlook to Asia could pressure the spread in the coming months Goldman Sachs said in a note.

• The JKM-TTF spread rose to $0.64/mmbtu in February, up from $0.40/mmbtu in January.
  • JKM-TTF Apr 24 down 0$/mmbtu at 0.2$/mmbtu
• US LNG exports to Asia declined to 11mtpa in the second half of February, down from 36mtpa in preceding weeks, due to Red Sea shipping disruptions.
• Heavy maintenance in Indonesia further tightened supply, with a reduction in regional exports by 7mtpa on the month on February 10mtpa.
• The supply tightness more than offset weaker-than-expected Japan and South Korea LNG imports in the period.
• The bank sees Asian LNG demand growth to strengthen for the balance of the year at 18mtpa on the year, driven by Chinese growth of 8mtpa.
• The bank, however, expects the Pacific Basin balance softer than previously estimated due to an increase in Qatari deliveries to the region amid Red Sea disruptions, while Panama Canal flows from the US to Asia restarted, Kpler data showed.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts the JKM premium to TTF for Sum24 at $0.95/mmbtu, from $1.50/mmbtu previous versus forwards at $0.87/mmbtu.
• The Sum24 JKM is forecast at $10.25/mmbtu, revised down from $10.80/mmbtu previously.