Following this morning's CPI release, JP Morgan and HSBC have both revised their year-end inflation forecasts lower to 43.5% and 48%, respectively, from 44.7% and 49.1%. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs have raised their estimate to 36% from 34%.

• Goldman Sachs are of the view that inflation expectations are a function of expectations for an interim minimum wage hike and FX dynamics. Given they forecast no mid-year minimum wage increase and FX stability to continue, they see inflation expectations falling sizeably in H2. However, they note that risks to their assumptions are to the upside. Accounting for this morning’s data, Goldman Sachs raise their year-end inflation projection to 36% (previously 34%).
• JP Morgan expect monthly inflation to come down in summer months thanks to core goods prices driven by real lira appreciation and the slowdown in the economic activity, and believe the worst part of monthly inflation prints is behind us.
• They add that headline inflation is likely to peak at 75% in May (previously 76%) owing to unfavourable base effects driven by natural gas prices. They also revise down their year-end inflation forecast to 43.5% (previously 44.7%) as they now assume more gradual electricity and natural gas price hikes over 2H24 and 2025.
• HSBC also lower their forecasts slightly following today's data release: they now see the headline rate peaking at 75% in May (previously 76%) and the year-end figure at 48% (previously 49.1%).