• Ignoring the move that spilled over from the 10Y TIPS auction, 5Y breakevens sit shy of earlier new record highs, currently at 3.68%.
• However, the FOMC members will likely take some comfort that 5Y5Y inflation swaps have slowly trended lower over the past two weeks, currently sitting at 2.62%.
• Tomorrow’s finalised U.Mich consumer survey for March offers another look at surveyed expectations and whether the 5-10y measure has indeed seen two months at 3.1% having peaked at 3.0% in Jan, or whether the war in Ukraine has begun to weigh more heavily on them.

US 5Y breakeven (white), US 5Y5Y inflation swap (yellow), EU 5Y5Y inflation swap (pink) and US 5Y5Y-5Y breakeven (green)Source: Bloomberg