• A mixed day for market-based inflation expectations so far, with breakevens hanging onto to slightly higher levels (5Y +1bp to 2.85%, 5Y5Y +1.5bp to 2.305%) but long-term inflation swaps dipping lower (5Y5Y -0.5bp to 2.59%).
• It leaves the long-term 5Y5Y measures at elevated levels but well within ranges, with the inflation swap in the Ukraine war range and breakevens within the range from the past year.
• That compares to surveyed measures such as the UMich 5-10Y consumer expectations which despite being corrected from the 3.3% in the June flash prior to the FOMC to 3.1% in the final release on Fri, is still at the cycle high.

5Y breakeven (yellow), 5Y5Y breakeven (green), 5Y5Y inflation swap (pink) and U.Mich consumer inflation expectations 5-10Y aheadSource: Bloomberg