Oil prices jumped around 3% on Monday following OPEC’s announcement that it would delay an increase in output from the start to the end of December. Aggressive comments from Iran also supported the rally, as did the election-related weaker US dollar (BBDXY -0.4%). The uncertainty around the election is likely to drive markets including oil over the coming days.

• WTI rose 3.3% to $71.63/bbl, close to the intraday high of $71.78, which was still below resistance at $72.34. The current recovery is likely to be a short-term correction. Initial support is at $66.72 and the bear trigger at $64.16.
• Brent is 3.1% higher at $75.34/bbl after reaching $75.36, still below initial resistance at $76.08 (October 24 high). The bearish tone remains though with initial support at $70.28, October 29 low, and the bear trigger at $68.01.
• Concern over a market surplus as non-OPEC output rises while demand stays lacklustre drove the OPEC+ decision to delay again the increase in output. With the supply/demand situation unlikely to change going into 2025, OPEC’s gradual normalisation of output following 2.2mbd of cuts may be shelved indefinitely.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran is planning a “strong and complex” strike on Israel. It apparently told allies that the attack would be after the US election but before the January presidential inauguration.
• Tropical Storm Rafael has the potential to disrupt oil and gas production in the western Gulf of Mexico, according to Bloomberg.