Opinion polling in the run-up to the 23 July general election shows that the outcome of a majority of seats held by the conservative People's Party (PP) and the right-wing nationalist Vox remains the most likely outcome, but is not assured. Of the last 10 opinion polls released between 16-25 June, nine had seat projections showing PP/Vox holding 176 seats or more, with one showing the two parties of the right on 175, just one seat short.

• In the run up to the election the best electoral strategy for PM Pedro Sanchez's centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the leftist Sumar alliance is likely to centre on warning of the potential for a PP-Vox right-wing coalition.
• The aftermath of 28 May regional elections highlights the difficulties that could be faced in reaching an agreement between PP and Vox post-election. In Valencia and the Balearic Islands the two parties have proved able to reach consensus on forming coalitions. However, in Extremadura this has proved impossible so far due to the refusal of the local PP head to allow Vox into a formal coalition.
• A lengthy period of coalition negotiations would not only see paralysis in the federal gov't, with a caretaker gov't remaining in place unable to enact new policies, but also at the EU level with Spain holding the presidency of the Council of the European Union in H223.

Chart 1. Opinion Polling, Seat Projections by Potential Groupings

Source: Sociometrica, NC Report, Sigma Dos, Electopanel, Hamalgama Metrica, IMOP, Data10, 40dB, GAD3, MNI. N.b. Total seats exceeds/falls short of 350 seat total due to rounding/exclusion of regionalist parties. Dashed line indicates 176 seats for majority.