SONIA futures are flat to -4.0 through the reds, with some weakness in wider core global FI markets setting the tone ahead of the gilt open.
- BoE-dated OIS firms against this backdrop, but still prices close to 150bp of cuts through ’24.
- Political posturing, along with speculation surrounding fiscal loosening and election timing, continue to do the rounds in the local press.
- Elsewhere, the BRC shop price index held steady at +4.3% Y/Y in Dec. The details of the release noted that “food inflation fell for the eighth consecutive month thanks to retailers’ efforts to bring down prices in the run-up to Christmas… Non-food products had a more challenging December, with price inflation rising again following retailers’ investment in November Black Friday discounting and ahead of the January sales.”
- Final manufacturing PMI data headlines the UK docket today.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-24 | 5.195 | +0.8 |
Mar-24 | 5.131 | -5.5 |
May-24 | 4.937 | -25.0 |
Jun-24 | 4.680 | -50.7 |
Aug-24 | 4.387 | -80.0 |
Sep-24 | 4.123 | -106.4 |
Nov-24 | 3.883 | -130.4 |
Dec-24 | 3.707 | -148.0 |