SONIA futures are flat to -4.0 through the reds, with some weakness in wider core global FI markets setting the tone ahead of the gilt open.

  • BoE-dated OIS firms against this backdrop, but still prices close to 150bp of cuts through ’24.
  • Political posturing, along with speculation surrounding fiscal loosening and election timing, continue to do the rounds in the local press.
  • Elsewhere, the BRC shop price index held steady at +4.3% Y/Y in Dec. The details of the release noted that “food inflation fell for the eighth consecutive month thanks to retailers’ efforts to bring down prices in the run-up to Christmas… Non-food products had a more challenging December, with price inflation rising again following retailers’ investment in November Black Friday discounting and ahead of the January sales.”
  • Final manufacturing PMI data headlines the UK docket today.
BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-24 5.195 +0.8
Mar-24 5.131 -5.5
May-24 4.937 -25.0
Jun-24 4.680 -50.7
Aug-24 4.387 -80.0
Sep-24 4.123 -106.4
Nov-24 3.883 -130.4
Dec-24 3.707 -148.0

STIR: SONIA Futures Lower Alongside Core Bonds

Last updated at:Jan-02 07:52By: Anthony Barton

SONIA futures are flat to -4.0 through the reds, with some weakness in wider core global FI markets setting the tone ahead of the gilt open.

  • BoE-dated OIS firms against this backdrop, but still prices close to 150bp of cuts through ’24.
  • Political posturing, along with speculation surrounding fiscal loosening and election timing, continue to do the rounds in the local press.
  • Elsewhere, the BRC shop price index held steady at +4.3% Y/Y in Dec. The details of the release noted that “food inflation fell for the eighth consecutive month thanks to retailers’ efforts to bring down prices in the run-up to Christmas… Non-food products had a more challenging December, with price inflation rising again following retailers’ investment in November Black Friday discounting and ahead of the January sales.”
  • Final manufacturing PMI data headlines the UK docket today.
BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-24 5.195 +0.8
Mar-24 5.131 -5.5
May-24 4.937 -25.0
Jun-24 4.680 -50.7
Aug-24 4.387 -80.0
Sep-24 4.123 -106.4
Nov-24 3.883 -130.4
Dec-24 3.707 -148.0