SONIA futures generally hold their post-settlement rally, unchanged to +3.5 through the blues after wider core global FI markets rallied a little on Fed Chair Powell’s late Wednesday comments.

  • BoE-dated OIS contracts are also in line with late Wednesday levels, showing ~71.5bp of cuts through year end. Further forward, ~17.5bp of cuts are priced through the June MPC, with recent ranges intact.
  • The BoE DMP survey headlines the UK calendar today.
  • The wage and inflation components will continue to receive the most interest, given feedthrough into BoE policy.
  • Final services PMI data is also due.
  • Those with a dovish leaning may use any hawkish reaction to those surveys to enter received/flattener positions, particularly if we get closer to range extremes.
BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-24 5.155 -4.0
Jun-24 5.022 -17.4
Aug-24 4.870 -32.6
Sep-24 4.752 -44.4
Nov-24 4.602 -59.4
Dec-24 4.481 -71.5

STIR: SONIA Holds Late Wednesday Moves, Local Survey Data Eyed

Last updated at:Apr-04 06:53By: Anthony Barton

SONIA futures generally hold their post-settlement rally, unchanged to +3.5 through the blues after wider core global FI markets rallied a little on Fed Chair Powell’s late Wednesday comments.

  • BoE-dated OIS contracts are also in line with late Wednesday levels, showing ~71.5bp of cuts through year end. Further forward, ~17.5bp of cuts are priced through the June MPC, with recent ranges intact.
  • The BoE DMP survey headlines the UK calendar today.
  • The wage and inflation components will continue to receive the most interest, given feedthrough into BoE policy.
  • Final services PMI data is also due.
  • Those with a dovish leaning may use any hawkish reaction to those surveys to enter received/flattener positions, particularly if we get closer to range extremes.
BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-24 5.155 -4.0
Jun-24 5.022 -17.4
Aug-24 4.870 -32.6
Sep-24 4.752 -44.4
Nov-24 4.602 -59.4
Dec-24 4.481 -71.5