SONIA futures generally hold their post-settlement rally, unchanged to +3.5 through the blues after wider core global FI markets rallied a little on Fed Chair Powell’s late Wednesday comments.
- BoE-dated OIS contracts are also in line with late Wednesday levels, showing ~71.5bp of cuts through year end. Further forward, ~17.5bp of cuts are priced through the June MPC, with recent ranges intact.
- The BoE DMP survey headlines the UK calendar today.
- The wage and inflation components will continue to receive the most interest, given feedthrough into BoE policy.
- Final services PMI data is also due.
- Those with a dovish leaning may use any hawkish reaction to those surveys to enter received/flattener positions, particularly if we get closer to range extremes.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-24 | 5.155 | -4.0 |
Jun-24 | 5.022 | -17.4 |
Aug-24 | 4.870 | -32.6 |
Sep-24 | 4.752 | -44.4 |
Nov-24 | 4.602 | -59.4 |
Dec-24 | 4.481 | -71.5 |