Today’s regional macro calendar is not expected to have a meaningful impact on ECB cut pricing, with US data (ADP, jobless claims, ISM services) likely to drive global markets ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls release.

• The stronger-than-expected German factory orders data was skewed by one-off large orders, and had little impact on EUR STIRs.
• ECB-dated OIS price 63bps of easing through year-end, implying a ~50% probability of three 25bp cuts this year.
• The ECB enters its pre-meeting quiet period as of tomorrow, though any interviews conducted up to today can still be published ahead of the Sep 12 meeting (where a 25bp rate cut is widely expected and fully priced).
• Eurozone retail sales are due at 1000BST today, while ECB’s Holzmann is scheduled to speak on CO2 pricing at 1500BST (so isn’t likely to touch on monetary policy matters).