The Advance Retail Sales report for September out Thursday will provide a key update on consumer activity at the end of Q3, and an important input to third-quarter GDP. Like other data points, hurricane activity could potentially play a role, with Hurricane Helene hitting at the end of the month (though most expectations are for hurricanes to more acutely impact the October survey). Consensus expectations are for a pickup in overall sales growth (to 0.3% M/M, vs 0.1% in Aug).

• Countervailing factors include a potential pickup in the single largest retail category - auto sales - after a soft (-0.1% M/M) August, while we would expect gasoline stations could  see another pullback on the back of lower pump prices (the category printed -1.2% in Aug - all figures are nominal, not price-adjusted) and even though CPI captured a 4.1% drop in gasoline prices in September, this is a subject of disagreement among analysts.
• The key "control group" will be most closely eyed as an input to the quarterly GDP calculations, and is seen rising 0.3% (vs 0.3% in Aug), with a strong figure potentially weighing against the case for a Fed cut in November but unlikely to derail it by itself.
• BofA are on the strong side of expectations, looking for 0.7% headline and 0.8% control group growth, with spending growth "broad based" with Hurricane Helene only having a "temporary impact on spending in the impacted states." Such a robust report would lead to a rise in no landing/re-acceleration concerns" but won't deter the Fed in making near-term rate cuts.
• Deutsche (looking for +0.6% headline, +0.3% control group) notes "Risks maybe skewed to the upside given that Hurricane Helene hit the Florida coast at the tail end of September and preparations for that storm may have boosted building supply and grocery store sales."
• TD looks for a cooldown in control group sales to 0.1%, despite a +0.8% headline figure on the back of stronger auto and gasoline station sales. Additionally they eye a flat reading for bars/restaurants, which as they point out "is the only services-spending signal that the report provides."
• Wells Fargo note a 0.3% headline rise, driven largely by car sales (+0.1% ex-autos).