- Despite the perceived fade in Middle East tensions and overall subdued global FX price action, the rand is slightly underperforming compared to most of its EMEA peers on the day, likely owing to the ~2% pullback in gold, as ZAR remains high beta to swings in global sentiment.
- Spot gold is now below Wednesday’s lows to eye next intraday support of 2324.3. Nevertheless, USDZAR still sits around 1.5% lower compared to Friday’s high despite today’s moderate uptick. Initial short-term support at 18.8729, the 50-day EMA, lies some way off.
- From a technical standpoint, the reversal higher on Apr 10 and subsequent recovery in USDZAR signals a stronger bullish theme. Sights are on key resistance at 19.3899, the Feb 23 high, which was tested last week. A break of this level would open 19.6399, the Oct 6 2023 high. Key support has been defined at 18.4131, the Apr 9 low. Clearance of this level would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme.
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