MNI US Inflation Insight: Almost Normal

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Inflation_Insight_Jan2026_e48f62c22e.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * December's CPI data was softer than expected in most respects, with relatively limited "payback" from the unusually soft (and heavily distorted) October/November report. * Stronger-than-expected food prices and energy readings kept headline (0.31% M/M) from "missing" more vs MNI's unrounded consensus (0.37% M/M) than did core which came in at 0.24% M/M (0.35% unrounded consensus). * Headline Y/Y inflation printed its lowest since June and core CPI Y/Y inflation at joint lows since early 2021. There was relatively little change in Y/Ys for core goods and services compared to last month's surprisingly low November print, though food inflation firmed. * Within the core categories, the big surprise was that there was zero inflation in core goods prices despite anticipation that there would be "payback" in particular for unusually low holiday sales-related goods prices in November (along with continued expectations of tariff passthrough). * Core services and overall supercore were also on the soft side though directionally most of the major categories were in order. That included a pickup in housing inflation that was slightly more than had been expected, and while travel-related services jumped as fully anticipated, they wasn't quite as strong as consensus had thought. * Subsequently-released (and delayed) producer price data for October and November pushed up core PCE forecasts for Q4 - and there will be a positive spread for core PCE over its CPI counterpart - but the FOMC's December projection of 3.0% Y/Y still looks to have downside risks. * There were plenty of oddities in this CPI report, with several categories registering multi-year/all-time highs and others lows without much explanation, reinforcing the notion that the "noise" from the October/November collection period continues to reverberate. * By the same token, it will reinforce conviction among FOMC participants that it could be a little longer before there is a cleaner read on underlying inflation dynamics. * Overall while inflation may not have picked up as strongly toward the end of the year as feared following the imposition of tariffs, Fed officials have signalled that they will be waiting to see data early in the New Year for any signs that businesses are finally setting prices higher to offset input inflation pressure. But most are cautiously optimistic that inflation should come down over the course of the year. * In the meantime, the data did nothing to alter expectations for a January Fed hold, with more focus at this point on the labor market. FOMC meeting-dated OIS shows just under 1bp of easing for this month, 6.5bp through March, 11bp through April, 24bp through June, 32bp through July and 53bp through year-end.

MNI US CPI Preview: Payback

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Jan20261_93e1324d4f.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Consumer price inflation is set to pick up on a sequential basis in December from the suspiciously weak prior price prints, with MNI's collection of analyst previews suggesting a rise to 0.35% M/M core / 0.37% headline after average monthly increases of 0.08% and 0.10% respectively over November and October. * However, distortions mean that an inflation acceleration in December shouldn't be taken at face value. * Few analysts took the shutdown-delayed October/November report either literally or seriously, given the unusual data collection period (incorporating late November holiday discounting in key goods categories) and "carry-forward imputation" due to the cancellation of the October survey. * One implication is that inflation in several categories is seen accelerating in December in a reflection of a more typical survey period: this includes multiple goods categories (e.g. apparel, recreational goods), as well as travel-related services (e.g. lodging away from home, airfares). * One category that isn't expected to see such dramatic "payback" is housing, however a reversion to previous rates of inflation is broadly expected after the BLS assumed inflation in October to be zero. * All of the above means that reading the details of the report will be even more critical than usual in making any interpretation of the aggregate indices, and any extreme results are likely to be downplayed. * This will be the last major data report ahead of the Fed's end-January meeting, but is very unlikely to sway the FOMC from holding rates as is heavily priced (only about 1bp of cuts implied by futures). * Even if the data are more robust this time, the continued distortions in the December report will probably keep the Committee waiting for the next two CPI reports available by the following meeting on March 17-18 to get a better sense of underlying pressures. * Indeed some FOMC members have identified the turn-of-the-year price-setting by firms as a key determinant of whether tariff-related inflation is set to be meaningfully passed through.

MNI US EARNINGS SCHEDULE - Banks Due as Stocks at Alltime High

Download Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNIUSEARNINGS_120126_58d6867bbc.pdf Executive Summary: * 4.3% of the index are set to report in the coming week, quieter than the usual opening week of the season. Most Magnificent Seven constituents aren't due until toward the end of January. * Mag Seven earnings should continue to point to a two-speed stock market, with BofA forecasting 20% EPS growth in Q4 for the tech sector. The drive is seen propping up expected growth of 9% for the index, or just 1% ex-tech sector. This quarter's earnings season comes as headline indices have hit new alltime highs, again adding pressure to P/E ratios. * Early earnings from big banks will be watched carefully for signals on the strength of the consumer this year, as well as any fallout from Trump's intended cap on credit card rates - a move that would pressure many bank's card programmes into unprofitability.

MNI Gilt Week Ahead: 12 January 2026

The focus this week will be on MPC speak, monthly activity data and Chancellor Reeves’ testimony ahead of the TSC.