MNI INTERVIEW: China Oil Imports To Recover Slowly From May
MNI INTERVIEW: China Oil Imports To Recover Slowly From May
MNI: BOE MPC Votes 8-1 To Hold Rates; Scenarios Centre Stage
MNI: BOE MPC Votes 8-1 To Hold Rates; Scenarios Centre Stage
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MNI INTERVIEW: China Oil Imports To Recover Slowly From May
MNI: BOE MPC Votes 8-1 To Hold Rates; Scenarios Centre Stage
MNI: BOE MPC Votes 8-1 To Hold Rates; Scenarios Centre Stage
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Monitoring A Multi-Year Range In WTI
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Italy will come to the market today with a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction.
April 29, 2026 05:40Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Preview_Apr2026_f141b1d92f.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The Bank of Canada is overwhelmingly expected by both markets and analysts to maintain its overnight rate for a 4th consecutive decision at 2.25% at the April meeting (announcement on April 29). * The BOC is seen highlighting that it will not allow higher energy prices to turn into persistent inflation amid a spike in energy prices, while acknowledging downside risks to growth amid significant uncertainty caused by the war in the Middle East. In other words, the expectation is for a relatively neutral message on the path of rates ahead that leans toward more caution on inflation than on growth. * A more hawkish outcome would include further emphasis on upside energy-driven inflation risks and concern over rising expectations, with heavily-upped CPI and (possibly) somewhat slightly raised growth projections in the Monetary Policy Report. * Conversely, the BOC could echo March's dovishly-interpreted meeting by downplaying relatively solid recent activity data and emphasizing that it will look through near-term rises in inflation, while reminding of other downside risks on the horizon including on US-Canada-Mexico trade. * Hikes still don't appear to be a near-term prospect per OIS market-implied pricing, but a tightening bias is evident overall. There are roughly 1 and a half hikes (of 25bp increments) implied by end-2026 - versus a very slight easing bias implied at the end of February before the war in the Middle East erupted. * Analysts remain nearly unanimous that the next move will be a hike rather than a cut, but the vast majority see a hold through the rest of this year as the BOC remains wary of inflation.
April 28, 2026 07:29We preview next week's MPC meeting where we see a 7-2 or 6-3 vote on hold and also review the recent data releases.
April 28, 2026 03:57The EFSF is likely to hold a syndication today, the Netherlands an auction and the EU its non-competitive round.
April 28, 2026 05:40FX Market Analysis
FX Market AnalysisWe preview next week's MPC meeting where we see a 7-2 or 6-3 vote on hold and also review the recent data releases.
April 28, 2026 03:57The ECB is seen on hold on Thursday, but guidance will be key with 80% chance of a 25bp hike in June
April 27, 2026 05:16Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Apr2026_W_Analysts_853ed000ad.pdf This update of our April 24 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 34 April 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: Hawkish Guidance Risks All analysts (among 30 previews seen by MNI) expect the FOMC to hold the Fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% at its April meeting, but opinions differ over possible communications shifts. General consensus is that the risks are that the post-meeting communications lean more hawkish vs expectations as opposed to more dovish, with most focus being on the Statement. * While the vast majority of analysts expect the FOMC to retain its implied easing bias in the Statement, many see risks that forward guidance ("In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range") shifts hawkishly to a more balanced/two-sided phrasing. A couple (Barclays and Wells Fargo) have a change in guidance as their base case for this meeting. * Wells Fargo: "The Committee is likely to emphasize optionality in its statement. We expect it to note that higher energy costs are keeping inflation elevated and to soften forward guidance, replacing language around "the extent and timing of additional adjustments" with more openended phrasing that references "future adjustments" to the policy rate." Barclays: "by removing in the statement the word "additional" when referring to upcoming rate adjustments, the FOMC would signal that it no longer views the next policy rate change as necessarily continuing the recent cutting cycle. This would suggest that it has a more balanced view about its next rate move and would reinforce expectations of policy on hold for the rest of the year." * In a variation of these risks, UBS analysts - who see "close to even odds" that the guidance becomes two-sided at this meeting - notes a hawkish incremental shift could revolve around the risks (2nd) paragraph, eg the Iran war "has increased the risks inflation remains elevated." * Tweaks are seen possible to the opening paragraph describing economic conditions, with some eyeing economic activity now described as "moderate" vs the prior "solid", and/or job gains to "modest" vs the prior "low", though inflation is expected to still be described as "somewhat elevated". * Overwhelming consensus is that Gov Miran will dissent again in favor of a 25bp cut, but will not be joined by others. * Future action: There is consensus among analysts that the Fed has a bit further to go on cuts, though a few see the easing cycle as having already concluded. The median analyst sees 50bp of further cuts, with 25bp easings seen in September and December. Citi is the most dovish on the rate outlook, seeing 75bp of cuts delivered by year-end, though 4 other analysts see that amount of easing by 2027.
April 27, 2026 04:35Forecasts we have seen point towards another pickup in headline inflation, to around 3% from March’s 2.55%.
April 27, 2026 04:13
