Key Inter-Meeting Fed Speak – March 2026

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Inter_Meeting_Fed_Speak_Mar2026_a84c116010.pdf Ahead of next week's Fed decision, we've published our summary of FOMC participant communications since the January FOMC meeting, including MNI's Hawk-Dove Matrix and a recap of the latest Beige Book and January meeting minutes.

MNI US Inflation Insight: Mind The PCE Gap

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Inflation_Insight_Mar2026_f0ae423848.pdf Executive Summary * February's CPI aggregates came in broadly in line with expectations, though the underlying details will have appeared less encouraging from the Fed's perspective. * Unrounded core CPI printed at 0.216% M/M (vs MNI median 0.24%) and headline at 0.267% M/M (vs 0.27%). * Core Y/Y of 2.46% remained at a rounded 2.5% as per consensus, while rounded headline CPI held at 2.4% Y/Y (2.41% vs 2.4% median), the lowest since May. * The details mattered though: analysts lifted Feb core PCE estimates to ~0.39% M/M (range 0.31-0.45) vs closer to 0.25% pre-CPI, citing in part stronger core goods components with heavier PCE weights. * Core goods inflation printed a slightly below-expected 0.08% M/M with large category swings; exused vehicles inflation cooled, while median core goods inflation fell sharply after January's tariffrelated jump. * Supercore CPI (ex-housing core services) cooled to 0.35% M/M (from 0.59%) but was still slightly hotter than expectations. The PCE translation from key categories were more punchy than the overall CPI data. * The threemonth core CPI run rate rose to 3.0% annualized while the sixmonth pace eased to 2.3%, suggesting mixed underlying momentum. * Inflation breadth widened by MNI's estimates: 50% of the CPI basket rose 3%+ Y/Y, and core goods breadth reached 42%, the highest since Oct 2023. That said, regional Fed estimates of stickiness and dispersion showed continued disinflation over a longer-term horizon. * Key to FOMC doves' overall disinflation narrative is housing CPI which moderated again, with OER at 0.22% M/M and primary rents at 0.13% M/M; softness was concentrated in the South region. * Food prices reaccelerated, with food-at-home at 0.44% M/M and food-away-from-home at 0.32% M/M (a positive driver of core PCE); energy saw modest recovery ahead of the March shock. * Due to government shutdown-related delays we still don't have the January PCE release, which comes Friday March 13. February's PCE drops on April 9, well after the Fed's next decision on March 18. * Of course even the latter would be considered somewhat stale given the significant inflationary impulse implied by spiking energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. * Market rate expectations moved slightly hawkish on the day, with cumulative 2026 cuts repriced from 36bp to 32bp in the hours after the CPI release, and the next cut now seen in October rather than September pre-release.

MNI US CPI Preview: The Calm Before The Energy Price Shock

Core CPI is seen moderating in Feb after a softer than expected but still solid Jan, whilst headline firms with energy

MNI US Macro Weekly: War Shock Meets Weak Jobs Data

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260306_fac1b23e2c.pdf Executive Summary * In the key release of a tumultuous week that was overshadowed by geopolitical developments, both the establishment and household surveys disappointed in the February Employment report with a 92k NFP drop, an unemployment rate rise to 4.44%, and large lower revisions. * But survey quirks and oneoffs complicate interpretation and it comes after a relatively solid January report. As such it doesn't appear to have greatly impacted FOMC participants' overall views on the rate outlook as we head into the pre-March FOMC blackout period. * Indeed it sounds as though all of the FOMC participants will have to weigh the surprisingly soft report alongside the potential macro implications of the conflict in the Middle East before coming up with a synthesis and forming March SEP projection updates. * Soaring energy prices and broader market uncertainty over the war in the Middle East started over the weekend saw rate cut pricing evaporate. Cumulative pricing at one point suggested that a rate cut would have to wait until after the September FOMC, having last Friday pointed to about a 50/50 chance of a second 25bp cut by that point (after July). * End-2026 pricing briefly touched ~32.5bp of cuts in the hour prior to the release of the February employment report, a 28bp repricing vs prior to the US-Iran conflict. The unexpected drop in payrolls and uptick in the unemployment rate was enough to bring a September rate cut to fully priced (29bp), even if a cut as soon as July remained slightly elusive. * Otherwise, data were mixed. Import prices remained firm, with expetroleum import prices posting their strongest fourmonth stretch since 2024 amid tariff effects and fading China concessions. * Growth indicators softened, with GDPNow falling to 2.1% on weaker expected consumption. Business surveys diverged: ISM Manufacturing held gains but saw a sharp jump in Prices Paid, while ISM Services surprised strongly with broadbased strength and cooling prices; S&P PMIs pointed to ~1.5% Q/Q growth. * Retail sales and consumption signals were mixed, with headline and category breadth softening despite a modest Control Group gain. * The week ahead features key inflation releases, with February CPI (Wed) and January PCE (Fri) central to shaping expectations before the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and new SEP; additional data in the week to come include GDP revisions, JOLTS, durable goods, and housing indicators.