MNI US Macro Weekly: War Shock Meets Weak Jobs Data

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260306_fac1b23e2c.pdf Executive Summary * In the key release of a tumultuous week that was overshadowed by geopolitical developments, both the establishment and household surveys disappointed in the February Employment report with a 92k NFP drop, an unemployment rate rise to 4.44%, and large lower revisions. * But survey quirks and oneoffs complicate interpretation and it comes after a relatively solid January report. As such it doesn't appear to have greatly impacted FOMC participants' overall views on the rate outlook as we head into the pre-March FOMC blackout period. * Indeed it sounds as though all of the FOMC participants will have to weigh the surprisingly soft report alongside the potential macro implications of the conflict in the Middle East before coming up with a synthesis and forming March SEP projection updates. * Soaring energy prices and broader market uncertainty over the war in the Middle East started over the weekend saw rate cut pricing evaporate. Cumulative pricing at one point suggested that a rate cut would have to wait until after the September FOMC, having last Friday pointed to about a 50/50 chance of a second 25bp cut by that point (after July). * End-2026 pricing briefly touched ~32.5bp of cuts in the hour prior to the release of the February employment report, a 28bp repricing vs prior to the US-Iran conflict. The unexpected drop in payrolls and uptick in the unemployment rate was enough to bring a September rate cut to fully priced (29bp), even if a cut as soon as July remained slightly elusive. * Otherwise, data were mixed. Import prices remained firm, with expetroleum import prices posting their strongest fourmonth stretch since 2024 amid tariff effects and fading China concessions. * Growth indicators softened, with GDPNow falling to 2.1% on weaker expected consumption. Business surveys diverged: ISM Manufacturing held gains but saw a sharp jump in Prices Paid, while ISM Services surprised strongly with broadbased strength and cooling prices; S&P PMIs pointed to ~1.5% Q/Q growth. * Retail sales and consumption signals were mixed, with headline and category breadth softening despite a modest Control Group gain. * The week ahead features key inflation releases, with February CPI (Wed) and January PCE (Fri) central to shaping expectations before the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and new SEP; additional data in the week to come include GDP revisions, JOLTS, durable goods, and housing indicators.

MNI US Employment Insight: Payrolls Take A Misstep

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Employment_Report_Mar2026_25003f8408.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * Key figures in both the establishment and household surveys disappointed in the February payrolls report although it must be seen in the context of strong January report. Indeed, even the most dovish FOMC member, Governor Miran, cautioned against reading too much into one month's job report. * It still acts as a dovish surprise though as it firmly pushes back on any more optimistic views of the labor market going into this report. * The themes broadly flagged ahead of the report were as expected although the magnitude was surprising. There were two healthcare-related hits, one fully expected (31k strikes) and one less so (potential reversal after a severe flu season in January), whilst adverse weather might well have played a role but was still hard to square away the extent of industries reporting job losses. * Nonfarm payrolls fell -92k (cons 55k) after 126k as part of heavy negative revisions of -69k, leaving a three-month average of 6k and six-month average of -1k. Private payrolls fell -86k (cons 60k) after 146k with a three-month average of 18k and six-month average of 34k, whilst private ex health & social assistance sees a three-month average of -29k and six-month of -16k after sizeable declines last year. * The household survey brought some meaningful surprises and oddities, in terms of both the monthly data and the annual population control revisions. Understanding February dynamics depends largely on figuring in the annual revisions, though overall February's household report looked largely weak. * For a household survey bottom line, the u/e rate surprised higher in Feb at 4.44% (cons 4.3 with dovish risk tilted to a 4.4) after an upward revised but what would still have surprised lower 4.32% in Jan. The latter was first reported at 4.28% vs then consensus of 4.4%, before unusually being revised with the delayed population control back on January levels. * Average the two monthly prints and the 4.38% sits between the heavily caveated 4.47% averaged in Q4 (government shutdown disruption) and 4.34% in Q3. * That broad stability continues to defy a scenario that the most dovish FOMC members had envisaged back in the December SEP (seven members pencilled in an u/e rate at 4.6-4.7% in 4Q25), with some of these prominent members since dialling back cut calls/rhetoric over the past month. * In a reminder of the risk in putting too much weight on single reports, response rates were at best mixed. The household survey response rate increased from three months of record lows but remains depressed and leaves it prone to higher than usual month-to-month volatility, whilst first responses for payrolls data slid back to very low levels and leave scope for larger revisions. * Whilst heavily clouded by today's surge in WTI futures and two-way swings in rates since the release, there has been a net dovish shift with June Fed Funds implied rates 4bp lower post-release and Dec 8bp lower. A next Fed cut is seen in September in a close call with July (22bp) and with 45bp of cuts seen for 2026.

MNI ASIA PAC Weekly Macro Wrap:

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region

MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight: February 2026

Eurozone February headline HICP printed 0.2pp above consensus at 1.90%.