MNI INTERVIEW: Trade Woes Mean BOC Stagflationary Risk-CD Howe
MNI INTERVIEW: Trade Woes Mean BOC Stagflationary Risk-CD Howe
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed On Hold For At Least Next Few Months-George
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed On Hold For At Least Next Few Months-George
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MNI INTERVIEW: Trade Woes Mean BOC Stagflationary Risk-CD Howe
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed On Hold For At Least Next Few Months-George
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed On Hold For At Least Next Few Months-George
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Headline inflation is expected to decelerate to 1.7% Y/Y (vs 1.9% prior).
January 28, 2026 10:14Germany and Portugal will look to hold auctions today while Italy will return to the market tomorrow.
January 28, 2026 06:58Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Preview_Jan2026_be093f7f2a.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The Bank of Canada is overwhelmingly expected by both markets and analysts to maintain its overnight rate at 2.25% at the January meeting (announcement on Jan 28). * This would be a 2nd consecutive pause as part of what is anticipated to be a flat rate path through 2026. The biggest question is, in which direction will the next move be? * The account of the deliberations at the December meeting highlighted that Governing Council debated "whether it was more likely that their next move would be to raise or lower the policy interest rate." * It remains more likely than not that the next move will be a hike, with a downside shock required for cutting again. * The January Monetary Policy Report is likely to show an upgrade to GDP growth projections for 2025 as a whole with a potential slight upgrade to 2026 at a still-soft level. CPI forecasts also look set to be raised slightly due to higher-than-expected headline readings in the latter months of the year, but as we explain, the more important underlying metrics have been subdued.
January 27, 2026 06:55Germany is likely to hold a syndication today while Italy and Germany will also hold auctions.
January 27, 2026 06:51FX Market Analysis
FX Market AnalysisEXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * As widely expected, the BoJ left rates on hold at its January policy meeting. This was the broad sell side consensus along with market pricing, which gave little chance to a hike at the meeting. A move was seen as very low risk, particularly after the December hike at the end of 2025. Much focus was on the outlook in terms of when the next BoJ hike may materialize. * Our sense is that the next window for a BOJ hike will be around mid year, consistent with market pricing of a June hike (see below for more details). Still, there are risks this could be moved forward, potentially to April. Watch points will be fiscal impetus post the election, along with JPY trends (weakness beyond 160 in USD/JPY could prompt an earlier hike), while by April we should also have more information on 2026 wage outcomes. * Market pricing, as at today, gives only a modest chance to a hike at the March policy meeting. April has an implied rate of 0.915%, against a current effective rate of 0.728%, so around 75% chance of a 25bps tightening priced in. A full hike is more than priced in for the June meeting, while by year the implied rate is above 1.40%. FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: BOJ Review - Jan 2026.pdf: https://media.marketnews.com/BOJ_Review_Jan_2026_776b9aadbe.pdf
January 27, 2026 04:09Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jan2026_With_Analysts_22448bf33a.pdf This update of our January 23 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 26 January 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: See You In March None of the 31 analysts' whose previews MNI read expected a Fed rate cut at the January FOMC meeting. * Statement: Most analysts saw the description of economic conditions as largely "marked to market" at the January meeting rather than changed substantively, with the description of "moderate" growth upgraded slightly. * More substantively, some analysts saw tweaks to the description of the balance of risks, potentially including the previous editions' note that risks to employment had risen in recent months. * There were almost no expectations that forward rate guidance would be changed but JPMorgan sees the removal of the word "additional" in the sentence "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate" * Dissents: All analysts who expressed an opinion said that it was likely/certain that Gov Miran would again dissent in a dovish direction. Several speculated he could be joined by Gov Bowman and/or Gov Waller, in descending order of probability, * Future action: The MNI analyst median for expected 2026 cuts is 50bp, with a range from zero to 125bp. * The median analyst still sees the next cut coming in March, though several pushed back their easing views to later in the year after the December nonfarm payrolls data released earlier this month. * Several analysts identified June as a logical point of resumption for rate cuts as it would/could reflect the first post-FOMC meeting with a new Fed Chair.
January 26, 2026 09:59We will be watching the gilt and repo markets for any impacts of this week's large redemption
January 26, 2026 08:20The Riksbank is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.75% on Thursday
January 26, 2026 02:44
