MNI RBA WATCH: Board To Hike On Supply-Driven Inflation Fears

The Reserve Bank of Australia Board is likely to raise the cash rate by a further 25 basis points from 4.35% when it meets next Tuesday and signal a strong possibility of another hike, as it seeks to contain inflation amid persistent supply shocks.

Markets have priced in more than a 90% chance of a hike next week, and see a strong possibility of another 25bp increase by the end of the year, with a terminal cash rate of 5% expected by May.

A hike on Tuesday, following August's hold, would be the Board's fourth 25bp increase this year and lift the cash rate to its highest level since October 2011. (See MNI RBA WATCH: Board Ready To Hike Further - Bullock)

Senior RBA officials have consistently used hawkish language following stronger-than-expected inflation data released in August and the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, which has heightened concerns about supply-driven inflation.

While unemployment has continued to show signs of weakness, the Board will likely lean heavily on its price-stability mandate to justify higher rates.

ECONOMIC DATA

Unemployment rose 10bp to 4.6% in August, while employment increased by 39,5000, nearly double the consensus forecast for a 20,000 rise, and more than reversing the 15,900 decline in July.

The strong employment gain was accompanied by a 0.2 percentage point increase in the participation rate to 67.1%, expanding the labour force by more than the rise in employment. This pushed the unemployment rate higher and signalled further slack in the labour market.

The most pressing data point for the RBA, however, has been inflation, which prompted the Bank's recent hawkish signalling. Trimmed-mean inflation rose to 3.6% y/y in July, unchanged from June and 10bp above expectations, while headline inflation eased to 3.5% from 3.8% but remained 20bp above expectations. Housing costs also rose 5.0% y/y in July, driven by a 5.7% increase in prices for new dwellings as builders passed on higher material and labour costs.

RBA COMMUNICATIONS

The current market pricing for a 5% terminal cash rate represents a stark departure from the rate path in the RBA's August forecasts, which had the rates peak at around 4.5% by March before falling to about 4.3% by December 2027.

Expectations have shifted following hawkish comments from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser and Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, followed by Governor Michele Bullock. (See MNI: RBA Comments Signal Tighter Policy Ahead - Ex Staff)

Bullock also noted during a fireside chat at an industry forum this week that “between 4.5% and 5% [unemployment rate] will probably take enough heat out of the labour market that’ll ease pressure on inflation,” suggesting the latest rise in unemployment is unlikely to alter the Bank's renewed hawkish stance.

FURTHER HIKES

While former RBA economists are split over how far the Bank needs to raise rates to bring inflation down, they agree current market pricing of a 5% peak rate seems too high. Peter Tulip and Mariano Kulish, both former RBA senior economists, see scope for the cash rate to reach at least 4.85%, with former Chief Economist John Simon noting the market's elevated forecast is likely driven more by a lack of clear guidance from the Bank.

“Maybe that's [the market's] best guess, but we really need to see an explanation from the Bank of what their strategy is," he said. "For a long time, their strategy was do the minimum and really stretch this out. They're stepping away from that, but the question is, how far are they stepping away?”

A move to 5% would represent a dramatic reversal of the Bank's recent approach, Simon said.

MNI INTERVIEW: US Debt Path Needs Reform - Morningstar DBRS

The United States could face a debt downgrade in coming years if lawmakers in Washington don't make meaningful changes to the path of America's projected debt pile, according to Morningstar DBRS Senior Vice President Michael Heydt.

"The key concern we have relates to the fiscal outlook," said Heydt in an interview. "We have been clear that the ratings could be downgraded if federal debt to GDP breaches 110% without a credible commitment to to improve the debt outlook."

That would include reforms that change the trajectory of mandatory spending and/or some durable increase in revenues, he said. "Not one-off measures, but kind of more structural reforms to the public finances outlook."

They key issue is not the 110% debt to GDP level but the unsustainable trajectory of its growth, Heydt added. '"If there is a major reform that does improve the outlook substantially and it passes 110 but stabilizes, we're okay with that. That's not as much of a concern." 

DEBT CLIMBING

Still, federal debt held by the public, which excludes intragovernmental debt, crossed a major threshold in early 2026, climbing above 101% of GDP, meaning that the public debt alone is now larger than the entire U.S. economy.

The Congressional Budget Office expects debt to GDP to rise above 110% in 2032. "It's not far off," Heydt said about the level, noting it could come even earlier. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Ex-CBO Chief Says Yields Will Likely Rise More) 

Morningstar DBRS is the only one of the four largest global credit rating agencies to retain the U.S. at the highest AAA rating, and confirmed that rating last week. Moody’s Ratings downgraded the U.S. credit rating in May last year from Aaa, its highest rating, to Aa1, a tier below, citing the inability of the nation to address large and growing deficits. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch downgraded the United States in 2011 and 2023, respectively.

Heightened political polarization raises the risk that lawmakers may continue to delay the reforms needed to put the country’s public finances on a more sustainable path. Still, Heydt said he anticipates intensifying political pressure for change in coming years, particularly as the Social Security trust fund is projected to run out in 2032, when benefits could be cut by about 22%.

"Political pressures will likely intensify," he said. "The political environment could change and we could see potentially an environment more conducive to to an adjustment."

Members of the House Budget Committee earlier this week held a field hearing in Dallas to discuss creating a fiscal commission to tackle the nation’s soaring debt.

"What we're looking for likely has to be a bipartisan effort to reform spending and/or increase taxes to improve the fiscal trajectory," Heydt said.

The federal fiscal deficit is large, structural in nature, and expected to worsen over time because of higher interest payments and age-related spending, including Social Security and Medicare. From 2026 to 2031, the fiscal deficit is expected to hover around 6% of GDP.

INTEREST COSTS

Another jump higher in Treasury yields will add to the pressure on the government's finances. "It's fair to say higher rates are going to, on the margin, increase the fiscal challenge facing the U.S. government."

The growth outlook is strong but risks are tilted to the downside, he added, expecting growth this year at 2.3%. An escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, a reassessment regarding the return on technology investments, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty could weigh on the outlook.

Heydt continues to continues to see significant structural strengths underpinning the U.S. credit profile. It is Morningstar DBRS’ expectation that the Federal Reserve will remain committed to its dual mandate and deliver low and stable inflation.

However, political pressures on the Fed that weaken the quality of monetary policymaking could also weigh on the credit rating, Heydt said. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Independence Still On Shaky Ground - Judge) 

MNI: Germany Wants Tougher Made In Europe Provisions

Germany is pushing for the European Union to toughen up “Made in Europe” provisions in its proposed Industrial Accelerator Act to ensure countries like China do not use manufacturing bases in third countries to bypass the requirements, according to a non-paper seen by MNI and likely to be discussed by EU industry ministers today.

The IAA aims to boost the resilience of European industry and reduce critical dependencies on third countries by building up domestic production capacity for low carbon basic raw materials and net zero technologies. While France has backed a narrow “Made in Europe” requirement, Germany has advocated for allowing it to include countries with which the EU has trade agreements or which comply with World Trade Organisation public procurement rules. (See MNI: EU Debates Whether 'Made In Europe' Includes Canada )

In the non-paper, Germany says that the IAA "must be structured in such a way that it is possible to react swiftly to activities aimed at adversely undermining " the aims of the legislation.

THIRD COUNTRY ROUTE

It calls for the European Commission to be given a "monitoring mandate" to ensure that nations on which EU industry already has "high dependencies" do not abuse 'Made with Europe' provisions by using production sites in approved third countries purely as export platforms to the EU Single Market.

"Relevant countries could be countries that establish production capacity in a partner country that falls within the scope of ‘Partner’s Origin’ mainly in order to meet the requirements of the IAA and where a significant share of production is targeted for the export into the EU, while at the same time direct high supply chain dependencies of the Union already exist from that third country".

The need to safeguard "critical industrial capacity" should also be considered when the EU decides to opt out a country or company from its approved status under the 'Made with Europe" provisions, the document states. 

The current Irish presidency of the EU is hoping to finalise the Industrial Accelerator Act by the end of the year. China has already indicated its displeasure and has said it is monitoring the legislation.

One EU source described the German call as a "counterbalance" to the current French drive to limit the broad scope of the Commission's initial Made in Europe proposal as the legislation wends its way through the European Parliament and the Council. 

MNI NORGES WATCH: Hikes, 'Prepared' To Hike Further

The Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday, and said it is prepared to hike again if necessary.

"The Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate further if warranted by the inflation outlook," the summary of its deliberations said.

"The conflict in the Middle East is still creating uncertainty about the inflation outlook, and since June, prices for oil and gas and various other commodities have risen," Governor Ida Wolden Bache said at the press conference following the decision. 

"Higher energy and commodity prices will result in higher costs for many domestic firms and higher prices for imported consumer goods. "

"On the other hand, the krone has appreciated so far this year and is now stronger than assumed in the June projections," she added, noting this "will in isolation pull down inflation."

The Committee took note of recent rate increases by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank as well as rising long-term government bond yields in many countries, as "more rate hikes are expected in the U.S., the euro area and various other countries." (See MNI RIKSBANK WATCH: Holds And Sees Tightening Later This Year)

"Higher interest rates abroad pull in the direction of higher interest rates also in Norway, among other things, through the effect on the krone exchange rate," Wolden Bache said.

The Committee had also "discussed to what extent the increase in market rates abroad could imply a higher long-term neutral interest rate in Norway," the summary said.

DIVISION ON COMMITTEE

Despite the unanimous vote, the summary highlighted a division over views of the prospects for inflation to become entrenched.

Some believed this risk had "eased somewhat over the summer and that it could therefore be appropriate to await further information and keep the policy rate unchanged to avoid restraining the economy more than needed."

Others noted that inflation was too high and "expressed concerns that the monetary stance [was] not sufficiently restrictive," and emphasised "that unemployment has shown little change in recent months and that the driving forces still indicate that inflation will continue to run above target over the next years.”

CPI inflation was higher than expected in August at 3.3% while the rise excluding energy products and adjusted for tax changes (CPI-ATE) was 3.0%. "The Committee noted that the average of underlying inflation indicators was unchanged in August and stood a little higher than CPI-ATE inflation," the summary said.

MNI RIKSBANK WATCH: Holds And Sees Tightening Later This Year

The Riksbank’s Executive Board unanimously left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as widely expected on Thursday, but changed its guidance to steer to a hike in the fourth quarter.

Economic activity is stronger, supply shocks are continuing and unless things change "it is expected that the increases to the policy rate will begin this year,” the Board said.

The Board's rate path nudged the fourth quarter policy rate up to 1.85% from 1.82%, with that projection suggesting that a rate hike is more likely than not by the end of the year. The projection for Q1 was 18 basis points higher at 2.07%, leaving the door open to a second hike early in 2027.

In August, Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen put the chances of a hike later this year at 50/50, but the deterioration in the geopolitical outlook has now pushed the Swedish central bank to clearly signal that tightening is now more likely than not. (See MNI INTERVIEW: 50/50 Hike Chances Due To Iran Doubts-Thedeen)

The Board highlighted other risks apart from the war, noting "if there were to be signs of a larger and more persistent upturn in inflation, the Riksbank would raise the policy rate at a faster pace than in the current forecast.”

It revised up its forecast for its target inflation measure, CPIF, to 1.5% this year from 1.1% and to 2.1% in 2027, up from 1.7% previously. GDP growth was forecast to be 2.8% this year, up from 2.4%. 

While recent inflation has been soft, with CPIF 0.7% in August, this was largely due to fiscal policy, notably a VAT cut, and the Riksbank assessed the ex-fiscal rate as close to the 2% target.

"There are still risks that inflation may be higher than in the forecast. As the war is continuing, the fundamental reason for the supply shocks also remains. The price of oil, electricity and fuel has risen recently, and the krona has also continued to weaken," the board said.

The krona was at the top of the advanced economy currency performance league in 2025 but has given up around half its gains this year, and  "the recent weakening of the krona will gradually increase inflationary pressures in 2027. However, during the forecast period, the krona is expected to strengthen," the Riksbank stated, arguing that the currency was now weaker than fundamentals imply.

MNI: Canada Work More Important Than Venezuela Deal- Hodgson

Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson on Wednesday downplayed recent U.S. threats to replace Canadian heavy crude oil imports with product from Venezuela, a situation he had declined to comment on earlier this month when visiting the oil hub of Alberta.  

“We can’t worry about what the Americans are doing. We’re just going to build for Canada,” Hodgson told MNI in brief comments as he left the House of Commons. President Donald Trump recently signed a deal to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry and move heavy crude to refineries around Texas in a bid to displace Canadian energy, part of the escalation of the trade war with Prime Minister Mark Carney. (See: MNI INTERVIEW:Paused Talks Help Canada In US Trade War-Verheul)

MNI INTERVIEW: Local Debt Biggest Challenge To China Since 90s

China should issue a total of up to CNY10-12 trillion in treasury bonds over three to four years to bail out local governments, one of the country’s most prominent economic advisors told MNI, calling for the same level of determination officials brought to dealing with non-performing bank loans in the 1990s.

Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Professor Yao Yang said the central government should issue up to CNY4 trillion in special treasuries annually during this effort. Bailing out local governments would permit them to settle outstanding payments which are the cause of chains of indebtedness between companies which he says is paralysing local economic activity.

While Yao does not expect his recommendations for local liabilities or the national property sector to be acted upon in the near term, he describes addressing local fiscal liabilities as the most significant economic issue facing China. He draws parallels between the present moment and the late 1990s banking crisis, when he said the economy came closest to collapse in modern times.

“The entire economy is grinding to a halt,” said Yao, who has participated in meetings with President Xi Jinping and former Premier Li Keqiang. The “triangular debt” between large-scale enterprises whose origins lie in local government liabilities totals about CNY30 trillion, he said.

A previous CNY12 trillion package in late 2024 aimed at regularising liabilities which local governments had hidden off-balance sheet in order to get around financing limits has had the effect of increasing the fiscal burden on local administrations, said Yao, who believes that much of the debt should instead have been written off.

The package included raising local governments’ debt ceiling by CNY6 trillion to swap out the hidden debt, as well as allocating an annual CNY800 billion in local special bonds for five years. The local government funding vehicles would have been technically registered as corporate defaults if they had been allowed to fail, noted Yao, but instead they have been linked to local government books.

In the event 12 provinces received most of the official support and were able to roll over and extend debt maturities to 20-30 years, with remaining regions having to raise their own funds for repayments, he added.

“Every country has to clean up its debt roughly every 20 years with the backdrop of a credit-based economy,” said Yao, who argues that the need to alleviate debt which impedes central government objectives overrides concerns over moral hazard.

At least 80% of local governments’ total debts are backed by tangible assets, many of which are currently idle, noted Yao.  (See MNI: China's Investment Likely To Decline In 2026 - Advisors)

“If the central government could allow asset management companies to step in and sell off these high-quality assets, there is plenty of capital in the market to absorb them,” he said.

The best way to curb disorderly borrowing by local governments is to compel administrations at all levels to publish their balance sheets for public scrutiny, according to Yao. Such a reform was mentioned during the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee but has proven virtually impossible to advance, he added.

REAL ESTATE

Yao also has suggestions for dealing with China’s struggling property market.

A national-level entity could acquire properties to provide public rental housing, especially those subject to judicial auctions, and could be funded by issuance of CNY2-3 trillion of corporate bonds, he suggested.

"If the central government puts the money on the table, housing prices would stabilise or even see a slight rise, with the entity possibly turning a profit at the end,” he said.

Over 700,000 foreclosed properties were listed last year, many of which were selling at half of market price, constantly eroding market confidence at the margins, said Yao. These properties should be purchased as soon as possible to reduce disruption to the market, he said. 

Yao rejected suggestions that the housing market is in the early stages of a recovery, adding that the current increase in second-hand housing transactions with falling prices has characteristics of a fire sale.