MNI INTERVIEW: Labour Market Weakness May Tame UK Inflation
MNI INTERVIEW: Labour Market Weakness May Tame UK Inflation
MNI CNB Preview - Feb 2026: Holding The Line
MNI CNB Preview - Feb 2026: Holding The Line
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MNI INTERVIEW: Labour Market Weakness May Tame UK Inflation
MNI CNB Preview - Feb 2026: Holding The Line
MNI CNB Preview - Feb 2026: Holding The Line
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The ESM and Italy are likely to hold syndications today, while Germany is scheduled to hold a Green auction.
February 03, 2026 06:47EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The combination of a resilient labour market and stronger than expected Dec/Q4 inflation has the sell-side consensus expecting an RBA rate hike tomorrow. If delivered, focus will be on how much follow up action the central bank sees as needed to ensure inflation returns to target. The trimmed mean CPI y/y has been trending up since mid last year and is now comfortably above the top end of the RBA's 2-3% target band. We expect the RBA to leave the door ajar for another hike, albeit one that remains dependent on data outcomes. * OIS now reflects materially tighter policy expectations across the curve. A 25bp hike tomorrow is priced at a 77% probability (up from 32% pre-jobs data), with cumulative tightening probability of 166% by June (vs 88% pre-jobs) and 229% by December 2026 (vs 152% pre-jobs). FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:RBA Preview - Feb 2026.pdf: https://media.marketnews.com/RBA_Preview_Feb_2026_2a2e1b5adc.pdf
February 02, 2026 03:09Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260130_5bf343d50d.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * The largest rate moves of the week surrounded President Trump's selection of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair when Powell's term in the position ends in May. * A next Fed cut is close to being fully priced for the June meeting again (22bp, the first meeting under the new Fed chair) whilst there are two 25bp cuts fully priced by year-end. * While historically more hawkish than most of the other contenders but also favoring economic productivity arguments for expecting inflation to remain in check amid solid growth, there remains high uncertainty on what the Fed might look like under Warsh's leadership. (More from our Policy Team on page 18.) * That includes policy on the balance sheet (preferring a smaller one) and communications, the Fed's reach outside of core monetary policy channels, and even personnel, having previously said "I think what we need is regime change at the Fed, and that's not just about the Chairman, it's about a range of people...it's about breaking some heads, because the way they've been doing business is not working." * Warsh or not, one impetus for consensus on a resumption of Fed easing would be a clear deterioration in the labor market, but here the data evidence remained mixed. Jobless claims remain at a healthy level despite initial claims surprising higher for the first time since Dec 11 after a particularly impressive run but with residual seasonality concerns. Continuing claims pushed lower still however but also with some questions over the role of unemployment insurance eligibility roll-off. * A further acceleration of strong core PPI inflation trends had little impact on Friday against a backdrop of precious metal prices tumbling, whilst details confirmed strong core PCE estimates at ~0.4% M/M for Dec. * Real GDP growth tracking for Q4 has been trimmed from 5.4% to a still very strong 4.2% after latest volatility in monthly trade reports. Capital goods imports are up strongly in tech-led strength but consumer and industrial imports are down heavily in a hangover from tariff front-running in Q1. * Manufacturing firms' sentiment firmed in January but consumer confidence slumped, with the lowest Conference Board metric since 2014 as consumer labor market perceptions softened further. * The FOMC treaded a largely neutral path with its January decision, maintaining its easing bias but sounding slightly more patient in making its next move than it did last month. Markets took a very mildly hawkish interpretation with implied rates rising under 1bp for meetings to July but even less of a move further out, and the dollar remaining largely unmoved. * Looking ahead, another government shutdown looms, starting Saturday, but with questions over its potential duration and breadth. In the event the BLS isn't impacted, the nonfarm payrolls report for January will highlight the week's economic data on Friday. The report will include benchmark revisions and will continue to see attention on the unemployment rate after its recent stalling around the 4.4% mark. * We also get Treasury's quarterly financing and borrowing updates, with attention on any revisions to its guidance on future increases in auction sizes.
January 30, 2026 09:43Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_US_Deep_Dive_Issuance_2026_01_ca7816c3d7.pdf February Refunding Preview: Streamlining Before Upsizing * The February Refunding round starts on Monday Feb 2 (1500ET) with the Treasury's update on financing requirements for the current (Jan-Mar) and next (Apr-Jun) quarters, at which it is expected to largely maintain its borrowing projections for the current quarter. * The main event is the full Refunding announcement on Wednesday Feb 4 (0830ET), in which any adjustments to the policy statement's guidance on future auction size increases will be closely-watched as usual. * The prevailing expectation is that there will be no change to the guidance "Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters", but that was also the overwhelming expectation in the last refunding round which surprised with a tweak, adding that "Treasury has begun to preliminarily consider future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes". * Of course, it would be a shock if there were any changes to nominal coupons in this round given Treasury's professed adherence to a "regular and predictable" approach. Our expectation remains that the next upsizing will be in November but the risks are skewed to a later increase. Consensus is fairly roughly split between November 2026 and February 2027.
January 30, 2026 09:11FX Market Analysis
FX Market AnalysisThe Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75% as expected, with key guidance left unchanged.
January 29, 2026 02:54The Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75% as expected, with key guidance left unchanged.
January 29, 2026 02:51Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Review_Jan2026_b1aa281281.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The FOMC treaded a largely neutral path with its January decision, maintaining its easing bias but sounding slightly more patient in making its next move than it did last month. Markets took a very mildly hawkish interpretation with implied rates rising under 1bp for meetings to July but even less of a move further out, and the dollar remaining largely unmoved. As it stands, there is under 4bp of cuts priced for the next meeting in March. * The Statement leaned marginally more hawkish in tone vs the previous edition but no moreso than was warranted given solid data since the December meeting and the Committee's clear shift to a "wait and see" stance on rates. It was edited to reflect more solid-than-expected economic growth and labor market data since December's meeting, no longer noting that "downside risks to employment rose in recent months". However the more substantive part of the statement - the forward rate guidance - was unchanged, continuing to say the FOMC was "considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments". * While Chair Powell said there was "broad support" on the Committee for holding today, including among non voters, Govs Miran and (in a very mild surprise) Waller dissented in favor of a 25bp cut, with the latter seeing a slight boost in his prediction market-implied probability of being named Fed Chair. * In the press conference, Chair Powell (as expected) refused to answer questions about his own future or the Department of Justice investigation into the Fed. But headlines published during the press conference reported US Tsy Sec Bessent saying that President Trump's Chair pick may come in the next week or so somewhat overshadowed proceedings. * On the monetary policy front, Powell at times sounded very relaxed on the current policy configuration, with the opening statement of the press conference including the line: "we see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum employment and 2% inflation." When asked whether the Committee's timeline for rate cuts had been pushed back, he pointed out that since December there has been a "clear improvement in the outlook for growth". And multiple times he noted both "the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to employment" have "diminished". * But Powell also said that current rates were at the "higher end" of the range of plausible estimates of neutral, implying that there was further room to come down. He highlighted "ongoing disinflation" across services, and the expectation of goods disinflation over 2026 as tariff impacts wane. Finally, he emphasized that a rate hike was not any participant's base case for the next move. * Attention turns to a potentially busy schedule next week, which may include the long-awaited announcement of Powell's would-be successor (Blackrock's Rieder and ex-Fed Gov Warsh remain the front-runners). If a federal government shutdown is avoided, we will get January nonfarm payrolls next Friday too. See PDF report for: * MNI View * Market Reaction * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * FOMC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes * MNI Policy - Fed Watch
January 28, 2026 09:11Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Review_Jan2026_8009f7d9a8.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Bank of Canada accompanied the unanimously-expected overnight rate hold at 2.25% at its January meeting with a largely unchanged appraisal of the economic and policy outlook. There was a very slight dovish tilt to the communications but not enough to sway market pricing of the expected policy path which continues to show no change in rates through 2026. * While the BOC remains uncertain about the "timing or direction of the next change in the policy rate", the opening statement highlighted the "unusually high" degree of uncertainty due in large part to upcoming North American free trade negotiation which the Bank's forecasts assume will result in the status quo, at worst. * And the updated Monetary Policy Report forecasts didn't deviate from expectations that inflation will converge with the 2% target, while maintaining that there remains slack in the economy despite upgraded growth forecasts. * Gov Macklem was asked in the press conference whether elevated uncertainty raises the bar for either cutting or hiking, and offered a little bit more colour on Governing Council's deliberations without revealing any particular lean, noting merely that CUSMA presented "obvious" risks to the outlook. * Markets came out of the meeting expecting largely the same path of rates as seen coming into the day, with modest cuts implied through July (~5bp) but rates ultimately ending the year higher (~9bp) vs current levels. * The next major data points to watch are November GDP on Friday, with January labour force data on Feb 6 and January CPI on Feb 16. The next rate decision will be on March 18. * See PDF report for: * MNI View * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * BOC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes * Monetary Policy Report Updates
January 28, 2026 04:45
