MNI UK Data Preview: January 2026 Release

We see downside risks to private regular wage growth and look in depth at expectations for air fares within December CPI

MNI US Macro Weekly: Data Takes Backseat To Fed Chair Intrigue

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260116_759a94a4c1.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Inflation data this week did little to change market participants' minds over the future path of Fed rates, taking a backseat to non-economic developments. * December's CPI data was softer than expected in most respects, with relatively limited "payback" from the unusually soft (and heavily distorted) October/November report. * Subsequently-released (and delayed) producer price data for October and November pushed up core PCE forecasts for Q4 - and there will be a positive spread for core PCE over its CPI counterpart - but the FOMC's December projection of 3.0% Y/Y still looks to have downside risks. * Even so, there is overwhelming support among Fed speakers for a rate hold at the upcoming meeting. * The Fed's Beige Book for January portrayed a slightly stronger take on economic activity compared with the prior release (November), with a slight improvement in labor market conditions and steady inflationary pressures - likely reinforcing conviction on the FOMC that there is no hurry to cut rates. * The week's main moves in rates markets didn't come from CPI or PPI, but rather a hawkish shift from another surprisingly low jobless claims print before President Trump hinted he'd like Kevin Hassett to stay at the NEC (amid a furore over the DOJ's just-announced investigation into current chair Powell.) * Trump is expected to select his candidate for the next Fed Chair soon, and rates jumped alongside the implied probability that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh will get the nod given speculation that he won't be as ardent a supporter of lower policy rates as Hassett. * The terminal implied yield of 3.26% has now more clearly exceeded levels seen shortly before the Dec FOMC and last closed higher in July. Increases in 2026 rate expectations are unsurprisingly backloaded with Fed Powell's term expiring in May. The 20bp of cumulative cuts for Jun is little changed since the start of the US session but year-end cuts have been trimmed 3bps to a cumulative 45bp. * The coming holiday-shortened week (Monday is MLK Day) will be highlighted by legal intrigue on Tuesday and Thursday, with the US Supreme Court potentially releasing its ruling on the legality of the White House's IEEPA tariffs on its next scheduled opinion day on Tuesday, and oral arguments on Wednesday over whether President Trump is allowed to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. * Thursday's monthly personal income and outlays report headlines the weekly US data calendar with another unusual two-month combined release for October and November.

MNI Asia Pac Weekly Macro Wrap:

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region.

MNI US Inflation Insight: Almost Normal

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Inflation_Insight_Jan2026_e48f62c22e.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * December's CPI data was softer than expected in most respects, with relatively limited "payback" from the unusually soft (and heavily distorted) October/November report. * Stronger-than-expected food prices and energy readings kept headline (0.31% M/M) from "missing" more vs MNI's unrounded consensus (0.37% M/M) than did core which came in at 0.24% M/M (0.35% unrounded consensus). * Headline Y/Y inflation printed its lowest since June and core CPI Y/Y inflation at joint lows since early 2021. There was relatively little change in Y/Ys for core goods and services compared to last month's surprisingly low November print, though food inflation firmed. * Within the core categories, the big surprise was that there was zero inflation in core goods prices despite anticipation that there would be "payback" in particular for unusually low holiday sales-related goods prices in November (along with continued expectations of tariff passthrough). * Core services and overall supercore were also on the soft side though directionally most of the major categories were in order. That included a pickup in housing inflation that was slightly more than had been expected, and while travel-related services jumped as fully anticipated, they wasn't quite as strong as consensus had thought. * Subsequently-released (and delayed) producer price data for October and November pushed up core PCE forecasts for Q4 - and there will be a positive spread for core PCE over its CPI counterpart - but the FOMC's December projection of 3.0% Y/Y still looks to have downside risks. * There were plenty of oddities in this CPI report, with several categories registering multi-year/all-time highs and others lows without much explanation, reinforcing the notion that the "noise" from the October/November collection period continues to reverberate. * By the same token, it will reinforce conviction among FOMC participants that it could be a little longer before there is a cleaner read on underlying inflation dynamics. * Overall while inflation may not have picked up as strongly toward the end of the year as feared following the imposition of tariffs, Fed officials have signalled that they will be waiting to see data early in the New Year for any signs that businesses are finally setting prices higher to offset input inflation pressure. But most are cautiously optimistic that inflation should come down over the course of the year. * In the meantime, the data did nothing to alter expectations for a January Fed hold, with more focus at this point on the labor market. FOMC meeting-dated OIS shows just under 1bp of easing for this month, 6.5bp through March, 11bp through April, 24bp through June, 32bp through July and 53bp through year-end.