NORGES BANK: Bache: Uncertainty Is Why Scenarios Are Not Published

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower last week, and Monday’s fresh short-term cycle low, reinforces a bear condition. Support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen the downtrend and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would open $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key S/T resistance has been defined at $74.06, Feb 3 high. A move above this level would reinstate a bull theme. A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to trade at its latest highs. Fresh cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2875.2, the 20-day EMA.

• WTI Crude up $0.12 or +0.17% at $70.84
• Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.18% at $4.001
• Gold spot down $11.78 or -0.4% at $2940.65
• Copper down $1.2 or -0.26% at $455.1
• Silver down $0.15 or -0.46% at $32.207
• Platinum down $0.48 or -0.05% at $969.5

The trend condition in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and last week’s climb to a new alltime high on the continuation contract, reinforces a bull theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5574.57 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 5387.59, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective. S&P E-Minis traded lower again, on Monday. The move down appears corrective, however, price has breached support at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and has exposed a key support at 5935.50, the Feb 3 low. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition that suggests the trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 539.15 pts or -1.39% at 38237.79 and the TOPIX ended 11.83 pts lower or -0.43% at 2724.7.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 26.988 pts or -0.8% at 3346.04 and the HANG SENG ended 307.59 pts lower or -1.32% at 23034.02.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 38.35 pts or +0.17% at 22463.07, FTSE 100 higher by 31.4 pts or +0.36% at 8689.76, CAC 40 up 8.76 pts or +0.11% at 8097.74 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.24 pts or 0% at 5453.06.
• Dow Jones mini down 9 pts or -0.02% at 43523, S&P 500 mini down 7.25 pts or -0.12% at 5993, NASDAQ mini down 62.75 pts or -0.29% at 21354.25.

Reuters reporting comments from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov - speaking at his daily presser. Peskov said, addressing remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday, hinting that Russia could work with US companies to mine rare-earth minerals in Ukraine: “Russia says it has its own plans to develop them but is open to cooperation.”

• Putin said, in an apparent reference to Ukraine yesterday: “Russia is one of the leading countries when it comes to rare metal reserves... as for new territories, we are also ready to attract foreign partners – there are certain reserves there too,”
• Putin's comments came after US President Donald Trump issued a statement on Truth Social claiming he is in “serious discussions” with Putin on “major Economic Development transactions”.
• The comments could undermine a White House assertion that a mineral deal with Kyiv would lead to a US commercial presence in Ukraine - serving as a non-military security assurance. Any sign of a US-Russia deal to share in Ukraine’s resource wealth is likely to imperil talks to end the war.
• Peskov reiterated that Russia considers European peacekeepers in Ukraine “unacceptable”, after Trump affirmed yesterday that he supports a European peacekeeping operation: “I think that will be a very good day, when we can go in as peacekeepers as opposed to what's going on right now…”
• Peskov noted US opposition to a UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, positing that the “European stance on Ukraine may become more balanced as a result of contacts with the US.”
• Yesterday, the EU submitted a competing mineral deal to Ukraine, pitched by Europe's Commissioner for Industrial Strategy Stéphane Séjourné as a "win-win partnership".