US FISCAL: CBO Eyes Potential For "X-Date" As Early As May

You are invited to listen to a Livestreamed MNI Connect Video Conference with the Congressional Budget Office's, Phillip Swagel.

Details below:

• TOPIC OF DISCUSSION: 'The U.S. Budget and Economic Outlook’'
• DATE: Monday 24 Feb 2025
• TIME: 10:00 - 11:00 ET; 15:00 - 16:00 GMT
• This event will be run as a Zoom Webinar and is a public, on-the-record event

To register please go to: MNI Webcast Registration

See here for a summary of ECBspeak between February 17 and February 24: 250224 - Weekly ECB Speak Wrap.pdf 

ECB Executive Board member Schnabel’s hawkish interview with the FT was the highlight of last week’s policymaker commentary. Schnabel suggested that “we are getting closer to the point where we may have to pause or halt our rate cuts”, which prompted a 4bp increase in year-end ECB implied rates at the time. While her comments were undeniably hawkish, we think they were mostly in line with Schnabel’s usual stance. 

• In a public MNI Connect Event last Tuesday, Executive Board member Cipollone highlighted that the liquidity demand of Eurozone banks will be the key determinant of the ECB’s future balance sheet size. Referencing the impact of balance sheet run-off to date, Cipollone said there were not yet any signs of fragmentation across the region. We will provide a more detailed update on the ECB’s balance sheet in an upcoming Balance Sheet Tracker.
• Speaking on the rate outlook, Cipollone suggested the policy stance should account for the impact of quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, his comments on the inflation, growth and tariff outlook were unsurprisingly dovish.
• Last week also saw the first comments from Escriva and Wunsch since the January decision. More detail on those remarks can be found in the document above.
• The Eurozone week-ahead is headlined by February flash inflation data from the four main member states, which together should give a good read on price pressures ahead of the Eurozone-wide release on Monday, March 3. The ECB’s Q4 negotiated wages growth series will also be released on Tuesday.

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