POWER: EstLink Outage Won’t Affect Security of Supply in Baltics, Finland

Dec-30 15:01

The outage at the 1GW EstLink 2 interconnector won’t affect energy supplies in the Baltic countries and Finland, Estonia’s climate minister, Yoko Alender, and Fingrid said, cited by CEENERGY News 

  • “System operators are able to handle the situation, as maintaining readiness for such incidents is part of their daily work,” Alender said.
  • “Estonia and the Baltic states have sufficient production capacity and reserves to meet our electricity needs. Power plants, including those operated by Enefit Power, are ready for operation and wind farms are also in operation”, the minister added.
  • She further added the outage does not affect the synchronisation of the Baltic states with the Continental European power grid, planned for early February 2025.
  • “The failure of the cross-border electricity transmission link did not endanger the operation of the electricity system in Finland, the electricity system is functioning normally, and electricity reliability is currently good, the electricity system is operating normally, and the electricity supply is currently sufficient”, Findgrid said last week, but pointed to increased risks with colder, less windy weather conditions.
  • While the outage did not affect the security of power supplies it caused price spikes in some regions.
  • “The Baltic countries had to replace cheap energy imports from Finland with more generation from domestic coal-fired power plants and imports from Poland. This led to higher electricity prices in Lithuania and other Baltic countries,” Andrius Maneikis, an expert from Litgrid’s Market Development Department, said.
  • The outage at the 1GW Estlink 2 between Finland and Estonia on 25 December has led to a 658MW curtailment until 31 July 2025, remit data showed previously. 

Historical bullets

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Mode

Nov-29 22:45
  • RES 3: 96.380 - High Mar 21 2023
  • RES 2: 97.190 - High May 5 2023 
  • RES 1: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg 
  • PRICE: 96.090 @ 15:41 GMT Nov 29
  • SUP 1: 95.760 - Low Nov 13
  • SUP 2: 95.750 - Low 27 Nov ‘23
  • SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Having hit a fresh pullback low at 95.760 across the global rates sell-off in recent weeks, the market found bottom and has staged a shallow bounce above the 96.00 handle. Nonetheless, recent weakness confirms the downside bias, with support undercutting at 95.750 below ahead of major support of 95.480. For any corrective recovery to take hold, markets need to retake the 96.00 handle on a closing basis.

USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective

Nov-29 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.4287 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
  • RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
  • RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
  • RES 1: 1.4078/4178 High Nov 27 / 26 and the bull trigger  
  • PRICE: 1.4005 @ 16:09 GMT Nov 29
  • SUP 1: 1.3965/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support  
  • SUP 2: 1.3858 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
  • SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17

Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle reinforced this theme. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, the latest pullback appears corrective.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

Nov-29 20:30
  • RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9   
  • RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13             
  • RES 2: 0.6604/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger  
  • RES 1: 0.6534/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
  • PRICE: 0.6512 @ 16:03 GMT Nov 29
  • SUP 1: 0.6434 Low Nov 26
  • SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support 
  • SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support  
  • SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023

A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The fresh cycle low on Tuesday marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. The pair has recovered from its recent lows - a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6534, the 20-day EMA.