US TSYS: Fed Holds Right Stance, Modestly Restrictive: NY Fed Williams
Apr-11 19:16
- Treasuries look to finish weaker Friday, off late morning lows after the bell, curves bear flattening after posting steeper levels on the open.
- Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures currently trade 109-24 (-27) -- after breaching a couple levels of support to mark a session low ofg 109-08, curves flatter/off early highs: 2s10s currently -2.061 at 53.192 (65.521 high), 5s30s -8.343 at 71.171 (86.760 high). 10Y yield at 4.4797% +.0548 vs. 4.5864% high.
- Treasury futures moving off lows after lower than expected PPI (prior up-revised slightly): PPI readthrough for core PCE looked fairly neutral on net vs expectations - core PCE will likely come in slightly higher than core CPI as expected but there won't be a huge margin (0.06% M/M core CPI vs ~0.11% core PCE consensus pre-PPI, either way a pullback from 0.365% M/M core PCE in Feb)
- Treasury futures holding near lows after lower than expected UofM sentiment & higher than anticipated inflation expectations. To put April's UMich consumer sentiment and inflation expectations into long-term perspective: we're back to the early 80s for 5-10Y inflation expectations (6.7%), but overall consumer sentiment is even worse now than it was then (around record lows at 47.2 in April).
- Cross asset: Stocks hold moderate gains (SPX eminis 100.0 at 5401.0), Gold climbed to a new high of 3244.39, Bbg US$ index lower at 1234.71 (-11.55).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $10.3B to Price Wednesday
Mar-12 19:15
At least $10.3B in corporate bonds to price Wednesday, OMERS Finance and World Bank rolled to Thursday's order of business
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 03/12 $2.25B #Stellantis $500M 3Y +140, $750M 5Y +170, $1B 10Y +215
- 03/12 $2.2B #Amcor Flexibles NA $725M 3Y +83, $725M 5Y +103, $750M 10Y +125
- 03/12 $1.5B #SoCal Edison $850M 5Y +118, $650M 30Y +160
- 03/12 $1.25B #NetApp Inc $625M 7Y +130, $625M 10Y +140
- 03/12 $1.2B #Canadian Pacific Railway $600M 5Y +75, $600M 10Y +95
- 03/12 $650M #CGI Inc 5Y +100
- 03/12 $500M #Equitable Holdings WNG 30NC10 6.7%
- 03/12 $750M PBF Holding 5NC2
- 03/12 $Benchmark AES 7Y +175a
- Expected Thursday:
- 03/13 $1B OMERS Finance 5Y SOFR+69a
- 03/13 $Benchmark World Bank 5Y SOFR+44a
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Chip Stocks & Interactive Media Outperforming
Mar-12 19:05
- Stocks are holding firmer but off knee-jerk highs reached after this morning's lower than expected headline CPI inflation data. The tech-heavy Nasdaq outperforming in late trade. Currently, the DJIA up up 38.49 points (0.09%) at 41402.61, S&P E-Minis up 43 points (0.77%) at 5614, while Nasdaq climbs 244.6 points (1.4%) at 17690.88.
- Information Technology and Communication Services sector continued to outperform in the second half, chip makers supporting the former with Micron Technology +8.61%, Palantir Technologies +7.38%, Super Micro Computer +6.81%, NVIDIA +6.63% and Oracle +5.49%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares supported the Communication Services sector with Netflix +2.75%, Meta Platforms +2.36% and Alphabet +1.75%.
- On the flipside, Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors underperformed in early trade, leading laggers in Consumer Staples included Brown-Forman -5.22%, Target -4.25%, Dollar General -4.06% and Hershey -3.79%.
- Meanwhile, pharmaceuticals and services shares weighed on the Health Care sector: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals -3.88%, Bristol-Myers Squibb -2.15%, West Pharmaceutical Services -1.84% and Biogen -1.75%.
EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
Mar-12 19:00
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8462 High Jan 24
- PRICE: 0.8430 @ 14:55 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 0.8378/8335 Low Mar 10 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces the current bullish theme. The cross has breached 0.8419, 76.4% of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg. This paves the way for a climb towards 0.8474, the Jan 20 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8335, the 50-day EMA. The short-term trend is in overbought territory. A pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
