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The governing centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) is recording some of its strongest opinion polling in nearly a decade amid a surge in support for the gov't amid an escalating trade and political spat with the United States that has coincided with a change in leadership at the top of gov't. In a 13 March poll by EKOS, the LPC scored the backing of 49.5% of respondents, the highest ever with that outlet and the best return for the Liberals in any opinion poll since November 2016. 

• Newly sworn-in PM Mark Carney is expected to announce a snap general election in the coming days, and a contest that for over a year has appeared to be a guaranteed majority for the main opposition centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) is now seen as a very tight race.
• Political betting markets have reflected this rapid change in public opinion. Data from Polymarket now gives the Conservatives just a 31% implied probability of winning a Commons majority, down from 91% on January 17. CPC leader Pierre Poilievre is still seen as the narrow favourite to become the next PM, with a 54% implied probability compared to Carney's 46%. This is down from 92% on 7 January, the day after former PM Justin Trudeau announced his intention to step down.
• In an effort to wrestle back the narrative and headlines, Poilievre announced on 17 March his intention to scrap the industrial carbon tax. Carney signed an order reducing the consumer carbon price to zero on 14 March, but Poilievre's announcement is the first time he has committed to ending the levy on businesses as well. 

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Leger, EKOS, Mainstreet Research, Pallas Data, Innovative Research, Liaison Strategies, Abacus Data, Pollara, Nanos Research, Ipsos, Research Co. Angus Reid, Relay Strategies, MNI

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