POLAND: Glapinski's Dovish Pivot Rattles Polish Markets

• RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 152.72 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 150.18 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 149.66 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 5 
• SUP 1: 148.10/01 Low MAr 4 / Low Oct 9 ‘24 
• SUP 2: 146.80 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 4: 145.92 Low Oct 4 ‘24

USDJPY traded to a fresh cycle low Tuesday, but has recovered, and the pair is trading inside its recent range. The trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would pave the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key S/T resistance is 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.

• RES 4: 0.8378 High Feb 6     
• RES 3: 0.8357 50.0% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg  
• RES 2: 0.8322 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 0.8313 Intraday hugh     
• PRICE: 0.8308 @ 06:50 GMT Mar 5 
• SUP 1: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 nd a near-term bear trigger    
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg 

A strong reversal in EURGBP from its recent lows undermines the recent bearish theme and - for now - highlights a possible short-term reversal. The cross has traded through the 20-day EMA and sights are on a key resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.8322. Clearance of this level is required to strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, key short-term support and the bear trigger, has been defined at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low.

Germany has announced a 30-year mandate while Spain and France are both due to hold conventional auctions on Thursday and Belgium is due an ORI auction on Friday. Already this week, the Netherlands held a DDA, Belgium held a syndication whilst Austria and Germany held auctions. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E42.6bln (excluding retail operations), up from E35.6bln last week.

For the full document including more details on issuance this week and next week click here.EZ250305.pdf

• Germany is likely to hold a syndication today after it announced a mandate for a new 30-year Bund, maturing 15 August 2056.
  • This has been on the cards for some time, but we had little conviction over the timing. We expect a similar size transaction to last year (E6bln with E1bln retained).
• Tomorrow, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli and ObliEi auction. On offer will be a shared E4.5-5.5bln of the 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43) alongside the on-the-run 10-year 3.15% Apr-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012O67). E250-750mln of the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012C12) will also be on offer.
  • This will be the first reopening of the 3.15% Apr-35 Obli, and is in line with our expectations.
• Also tomorrow, France will hold a LT OAT auction. On offer will be E11-13bln of the 4.75% Apr-35 OAT (ISIN: FR0010070060), the on-the-run 10-year 3.20% May-35 OAT (ISIN: FR001400X8V5), the 1.75% Jun-39 Green OAT (ISIN: FR0013234333) and the on-the-run 20-year 2.50% May-43 OAT (ISIN: FR001400CMX2)
• To conclude the week on Friday, Belgium will hold an ORI operation. Details will be announced tomorrow.