POLAND: MNI NBP Review - April 2025: A Dove In Charge Of Doves
Apr-04 11:37
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STIR: BLOCK: May'25/Aug'25 SOFR Midcurve Put Strip
Mar-05 11:37
- Total +8,000 0QK5/0QQ5 95.62 put strip, 2.0 total db, ref 96.46, from 0619 to 0621ET
STIR: Holding Swing Off Dovish Extremes, ISM Services and Beige Book Ahead
Mar-05 11:33
- Fed Funds implied rates consolidate yesterday’s lift off recent dovish extremes, aided by spillover from German fiscal plans plus Lutnick hinting at tariff relief for Canada and Mexico (growth negative tariff impacts had outweighed the inflationary angle in recent sessions).
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1.5bp Mar, 11.5bp May, 27.5bp Jun, 37.5bp Jul and 73bp Dec.
- The 73bp of cuts for 2025 has swung from as many as 85bp yesterday.
- Data headlines today’s docket with no scheduled Fedspeak after NY Fed’s Williams yesterday reiterated that he sees mon pol as “modestly restrictive” and didn’t see a current need to change policy. He also noted inflation expectations are to be watched closely, adding to similar comments from St Louis Fed’s Musalem on Friday.
- The main focus is on the ISM Services February report whilst the Beige Book will be watched for anecdotal updates, especially concerning tariff impacts, ahead of the Mar 19 FOMC. It’ll be the first Beige Book since Trump’s inauguration.
- Beige Book “tariff” count: Zero mentions in the Oct 23 report, 11 in Dec 4 and 23 in Jan 15. From January’s update: “More contacts were optimistic about the outlook for 2025 than were pessimistic about it, though contacts in several Districts expressed concerns that changes in immigration and tariff policy could negatively affect the economy.”
FOREX: EURCHF Edging Back to Significant 0.95 Mark, Swiss CPI Shrugged Off
Mar-05 11:33
- The broad single currency strength continues to be a key feature of the FX markets this week, having gained substantial momentum over the past 24 hours. EURCHF has not been immune to this narrative and is approaching a resistance point that has proved technically significant over the past six months.
- EURCHF is approaching a cluster of highs just above the 0.95 handle, which represent a key short-term resistance zone (0.9500-0.9518) for the cross. Today’s high of 0.9501 is the ninth daily test of this key zone since September last year, with the cross consistently failing to gather topside momentum. Should the fundamental drivers of the renewed optimism persist, there may be scope for EURCHF to gain greater traction this time. Indeed, moving average indicators have begun to point north.
- Furthermore, slightly firmer than expected Swiss CPI this morning has been unable to move the needle. The outperformance appears to be driven by core goods categories, less relevant for the SNB compared to domestic services, and the base case for the March meeting remains a 25bp cut to 0.25%.
- A breach of resistance at 0.9518 and a daily close above this level would open up 0.9581, the August high. Above here, attention will be on 0.9655, the 61.8% retracement of the May-August downswing.
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