GOLD:  Gold Weighing Further Tariff Headlines 

• RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
• RES 2: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg 
• RES 1: 96.360 - High Dec 11  
• PRICE: 96.210 @ 15:35 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Aussie 3-yr futures have pulled back from their most recent highs - a correction. A resumption of gains would signal scope for 96.360, the Dec 11 high. Clearance of this level would open 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of the downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. 

Headlines have crossed that Mark Carney will become the new Prime Minister of Canada. 

• BBG notes: "The ex-Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor won the contest to lead the Liberal Party of Canada with 85.9% of the vote. The transfer of power from Justin Trudeau to Carney is expected to take place within days." 

• CBS notes as well: "The new leader will inherit a government led by a party which has seen its support among the Canadian electorate wane significantly over the past few years. With opposition parties eager to trigger an election, the situation is becoming increasingly urgent. Carney's government could be toppled by Parliament to call for a new national election, which can be called any time between the Parliament going back into session on March 24 and October 20, by which time a vote must be held." (see this link for more details). 

   

NZD/USD tracks near 0.5710/15 in early Monday dealings. The Kiwi lost 0.44% on Friday, weaker with most other commodity FX, but underperforming the EU currencies. We were still up 2% for last week, amid broad USD weakness, although again the EU currency bloc, led by SEK, were the strongest performers. 

• For NZD/USD technicals, we are wedged between the 20 and 50 day EM support points, which are between 0.5690/0.5700, while on the topside, the 100-day EMA is near 0.5765. We couldn't break above this resistance point last week.
• In the cross asset space on Friday, US yields were firmer, but mixed for last week. The 10yr Tsy up around 10bps last week, but the 2yr was near flat, close to 4.00% as US growth concerns continue. US payrolls were resilient, but they pre-date the deterioration in consumer and business confidence. US equity finished higher, but futures are weaker today in the first part of trade.
• NZ-US 2 swap spreads sit at -48bps, close to recent highs and continue to argue for higher NZD/USD levels.
• EUR/NZD rallied sharply - putting the cross north of 1.90 for the first time since the COVID pandemic.
• The data calendar is quiet today. Tomorrow we get Q4 manufacturing activity.
• NZ Deputy PM Peters will travel to the US this week for high level talks.