US-RUSSIA: Kremlin Says Putin-Witkoff Talks Were "Constructive"

Current analyst consensus tilts in favour of Norges Bank holding rates at 4.50% tomorrow morning (markets currently price 7bps of easing), a move that would go against guidance for a 25bp cut in March made at both the December and January meetings.

• Although a renewal of inflationary pressures will contribute to a more hawkish rate path relative to December, we don’t think a cut can be ruled out entirely. See more in our preview here
• As such, the immediate market reaction is set to be driven by the rate announcement. Overnight ATM EURNOK vols have moved to their highest since last November’s US election. That sees an ATM straddle expiring at tomorrow’s NY cut requiring a ~60 pip swing to break-even.
• Likely stretched downside positioning in xxx/NOK crosses through March may exacerbate the magnitude of any upside correction in the event of a rate cut. On a 14-day RSI basis, EURNOK is currently at its most oversold since August 2022.
• However, rallies short of the 20-day EMA at 11.5516 will be considered corrective. A push towards this level may require a smaller rate path revision in late-2025/2026 than currently expected in addition to a rate cut.
• Should Norges Bank opt to hold rates at 4.50% and make a larger upward rate path revision than currently expected, this would solidify a bearish theme in EURNOK and expose the June 21 2024 low at 11.2625.  Clearance of this level would open up 11.1760 (December 2023 low) on the downside.

Figure 1: EURNOK

• RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24        
• RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8395 High Mar 24      
• PRICE: 0.8369 @ 14:41 GMT Mar 26 
• SUP 1: 0.8333 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support 

EURGBP has traded lower this week. However, today’s rally from the intraday low highlights a possible reversal. A strong daily close today would strengthen the bullish significance of today’s bounce. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position. This suggests that the pullback from the Mar 11 high, has been a correction. Resistance to watch is 0.8395, the Mar 24 high. Key near-term support lies at 0.8333, today’s intraday low.

The SNB has published their "quarterly bulletin" as well as their quarterly "business cycle signals". Key highlights:

• "For the next two quarters, companies expect purchase and sales prices to remain stable or rise slightly (chart 8). On the one hand, reductions in the price of electricity and gas are curbing costs. On the other hand, the rising prices of certain raw materials and inputs are leading to slight upward pressure on purchase prices in manufacturing and construction" - suggests risks of material deflation in Switzerland are limited for the moment "
• The companies surveyed report solid turnover growth overall in the first quarter. Growth momentum in the services sector and construction remains robust. Turnover in manufacturing also saw tangible growth, having barely increased in previous quarters" - the KOF indicator points towards robust growth ahead
• "Companies are no longer as concerned as in previous years about the shortage of specialist staff and recruitment difficulties. Staffing levels are approximately in line with companies’ needs" - mirroring the softening labour market in Switzerland
• "The growth outlook is brightening somewhat but is still subject to considerable uncertainty. In particular, as long as the precise details of the new US administration’s trade policy are not known, the effects are difficult for companies to assess" - as expected given the current global backdrop

Link to the quarterly bulletin (also contains business cycle signals
publication on the back): https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/quarterly-bulletin/2025/quartbul_2025_1_komplett