TARIFFS: Macron Asks European Businesses To Suspend Investments In US
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GILTS: Still Underpinned As Equities & Oil Falter
A fresh move lower in equities counters any weakness that followed the latest round of German fiscal headlines, leaving gilt futures in the upper half of today’s range.
- First resistance at 93.51 has been pierced, with any fresh extension higher set to target the Feb 6 high and bull trigger (93.83).
- Yields 3-5bp lower, front end continues to outperform on the day.
- Offshore matters still dominate given macro readthrough for U.S. tariff choices/subsequent retaliation from targeted nations and European feedthrough from potential fiscal loosening in Germany.
- Oil lower alongside global growth worries, providing further support.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Double Top Reversal
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
- RES 2: 6029.03 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5924.0 Low Feb 25
- PRICE: 5805.25 @ 14:45 GMT Mar 4
- SUP 1: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 ’24
- SUP 2: 5730.00 Low Sep 18 ‘24
- SUP 3: 5698.25 Low 50.0% retrace of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24
A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract this week, reinforces a short-term bear threat. The contract has traded to a fresh low and the move down has resulted in a print below the next key support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and confirm a double top pattern on the daily scale. This would open 5784.00, the Nov 4 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6029.03, the 50-day EMA.
STIR: SOFR Option Update, Call Buying Edges Puts, Supports Implieds
Underlying futures continue to gain. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 gaining vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 at -3.1bp (-1.8bp), May'25 at -14.0bp (-10.2bp), Jun'25 at -31.9bp (-26.0bp), Jul'25 at -43.1bp (-35.3bp).
- Block, 15,000 0QM5 97.00/97.50 call spds 7.5
- +10,000 0QM5 97.00/97.50 call spds, 7.5 ref 96.01
- +5,000 SFRZ5 96.00 puts, 15.5
- -3,000 SFRZ5 96.43 straddles, 72.0 ref 96.415
- +5,000 SFRU5 97.00 calls 11.0 ref 96.275
- -5,000 SFRJ5 96.12/96.37 call spds, 3.75 ref 96.005
- +20,000 0QM5 97.00/97.50 call spds, 7.25 ref 96.565
- -30,000 0QM5 95.12/95.50 put spds .75 vs. 96.545 to -.535/0.06%
- -10,000 SFRN5 95.56/95.75/95.93 put flys, 4. ref 96.26
- -5,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50 call spds, 10.0 ref 96.41
