US NATGAS: New England EOD update: bearish on demand and midday forecast

• Crude markets extended their decline earlier today, before paring most of the losses later in the session. Downside pressure came from confirmation that OPEC plans to return barrels to the market, coupled with the disruption to trade and potential hit to global economic growth from Trump’s tariff policy.
• WTI Apr 25 is down by 0.1% at $68.3/bbl.
• OPEC has signalled that it will proceed with its planned output hike of 138k b/d in April amid healthy market fundamentals and positive market outlook.
• The current bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions.
• Support at $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low, was pierced earlier today, with next support seen at $66.41, the Dec 6 ‘24 low.
• Meanwhile, Henry Hub climbed to its highest close since Dec 2022, driven by near record LNG feedgas flows, forecasts of higher demand next week, and concerns that flows from Canada could be disrupted by the looming trade war.
• US Natgas Apr 25 rose by 5.3% to $4.34/mmbtu.
• Spot gold is up by 0.7% to $2,914/oz, aided by broad dollar weakness as stagflationary concerns in the US gain traction.
• Next immediate resistance in gold comes at $2,920, which has been pierced. Above here, a stronger rally would refocus attention on the next objective at $2,962.2, a Fibonacci projection.

• Stocks are mixed in later trade, S&P Eminis managing to claw their way off January lows, while the Nasdaq is in the green led by semiconductor stocks. Little has changed regarding underlying risk sentiment, however, global markets still concerned over the impact of 25% US import tariffs against Canada & Mexico, 20% on China, not to mention agriculture products starting April 2.
• Currently, the DJIA trades down 314.99 points (-0.73%) at 42874.67, S&P E-Minis down 20.25 points (-0.35%) at 5840.0 (vs. 5744.00 low), Nasdaq up 101.8 points (0.6%) at 18450.86.
• Information Technology and Communication Services sectors led gainers in the second half, semiconductor makers buoyed the Tech sector: Super Micro Computer +10.20%, Enphase Energy +8.61%, First Solar +4.14% and NVIDIA +3.00%.
• Interactive media and entertainment shares buoyed the Communication Services sector with Match Group +3.38%, Warner Bros Discovery +2.90% and Alphabet +2.89%.
• Financial and Consumer Staples sectors lead the decline in late trade: banks and services led laggers in the former with Citigroup -5.07%, Ameriprise Financial -5.01%, Discover Financial Services- 4.95%, Capital One Financial Corp-4.87% and Bank of America -4.72%.
• Meanwhile,  Target -3.10%, Coca-Cola -2.56%, Estee Lauder Cos -2.54% and Philip Morris International -2.46% weighed on the Consumer Staples sector.
• Earnings expected after the close include: Crowdstrike Holdings, Ross Stores, Foot Locker, Campbell's, Abercrombie & Fitch, Brown-Forman Corp, Marvell Technology and Victoria's Secret.

• RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 152.83 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 149.65 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 148.49 @ 16:29 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24 
• SUP 2: 147.02 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 4: 145.92 Low Oct 4 ‘24

USDJPY traded sharply lower Tuesday. The move down has resulted in a print below support at 148.57, the Feb 25 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The break lower has also resulted in a clear breach of 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low. This paves the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.