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GERMANY: Opponents Issue New Legal Challenges, But Debt Brake Reform Set To Pass

Mar-17 15:36

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has launched a last-minute attempt to have the Constitutional Court bar the holding of a vote in the old Bundestag on 18 March that is set to reform the debt brake to allow for greater defence spending and create an E500B infrastructure fund. The AfD argues that not enough time has been afforded to allow external experts to scrutinise the plans. On 16 March the Bundestag budget committee approved the holding of a full vote on the package. 

  • Following the 14 March ruling from the Constitutional Court against the AfD and far-left Die Linke petitions seeking a halt to the legislative process, it is seen as unlikely that the Court would perform an about-turn and grant the claims of the last-minute bids.
  • The AfD has also sought to force the president of the Bundestag Bärbel Bas to convene the new Bundestag immediately, rather than 25 March. The new Bundestag would have a one-third blocking minority of AfD and Linke lawmakers. However, Bas has rejected the call, saying she is following the wishes of the CDU-SPD majority.
  • The agreement reached between the conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), and environmentalist Greens should ensure the passage of the reforms. The three parties combined hold 520 seats in the old Bundestag, over the 489 required for a two-thirds majority. As such they can also survive a number of one-off rejections among lawmakers, although a more sizeable rebellion could raise risks of defeat. 

US TSY FUTURES: Extending Highs

Mar-17 15:33
  • Treasury futures have regained footing following this morning's post-data head-fake sell-off. Jun'25 10Y trades 110-29 +8.5) vs. 110-14 low post data, initial technical resistance well above at 111-25 (High Mar 11).
  • Curves remain flatter with the short end holding steady: 2s10s -4.388 at 24.907, 5s30s -2.446 at 50.636. 10Y yld -.0481 at 4.2640%.
  • Cross asset update: Bbg US$ index extending lows (BBDXY -4.57 at 1261.15), Gold attempting to rise above 3,000 again (+11.65 at 2995.81), West Texas Crude mildly higher +.21 at 67.39.

FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.100%(ALLOT 23.21%)

Mar-17 15:32
  • US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.100%(ALLOT 23.21%)
  • US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 26.27% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 7.04% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.69% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.01