EU HEALTHCARE: Pharma: US Sales %

• Broader risk-off moves have seen Fed Funds implied rates pare some of Friday’s post-Powell push higher on being in no hurry to cut rates and comments on the ability to look through tariff-driven inflation, with the paring largest in the back end of the 2025.
• Combined with Friday’s payrolls report prior to Powell, which had some dovish details but avoided a sharp deterioration, and the June contract stands the highest relative to pre-NFP levels, with 28bp of cuts priced vs 33bp pre-NFP.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Mar, 10.5bp May, 28bp Jun, 41bp Jul and 76bp Dec.
• Today sees the NY Fed consumer survey including its inflation expectations results which are likely to receive closer than usual attention with growing focus in Fed communications on expectations.
• The FOMC is now in media blackout ahead of the Mar 18-19 meeting.
• See a wrap of last week’s macro events, including Powell’s remarks here. 

US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET, but again, noting the US clock change. 

• 10-Mar 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.0%, --)
• 10-Mar 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions

• 11-Mar 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (102.8, 101.0)
• 11-Mar 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (7.6M, 7.665M), Rate (4.5%, --)
• 11-Mar 1000 JOLTS Quits Level (3.197M, --), Rate (2.0%, --)
• 11-Mar 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction
• 11-Mar 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y Note Auction (91282CMS7)

The latest CFTC CoT report revealed a deepening of existing exposure across the major investor groups that we track.

• Leveraged funds added to net shorts in all contracts outside of TU & UXY futures, where they trimmed net shorts. They added a net ~$22.4mln DV01 equivalent in fresh shorts across the curve, with 5s presenting the most meaningful positioning swing. They remain net short across the curve.
• Asset managers added to net longs in all contracts outside of WN futures, with a net $12.2mln DV01 equivalent of longs added across the curve. They remain net long across the curve.
• Non-commercial net positioning saw net shorts added across the curve, flipping the only net long position seen in the prior week (US futures). See table below for greater details.

Source: MNI - Market News/CFTC/Bloomberg