OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bull Cycle Still In Play

• Treasuries are back to little changed on the day after a modest rolling over in equities, leaving benchmark tenors within +/-1bp of yesterday’s close.
• The Kremlin has said Putin and Trump are due to speak between 0900-1100ET today and we earlier saw Bloomberg report that Putin wants all arms to Ukraine to be halted as part of a ceasefire agreement.
• Today sees a string of second tier US data releases plus potential spillover from Canada CPI at 0830ET and the German Bundestag vote on fiscal reform also expected to start from ~0830ET (with Treasuries currently outperforming EGBs after yesterday's underperformance).  
• TYM5 trades at 110-20+ (+ 01) on more limited cumulative volumes of 275k having remained within yesterday’s range throughout.
• Support at 110-12+ (Mar 6/13 low) remains intact whilst the trend condition remains bullish with resistance at 111-25 (Mar 11 high).
• Data: Import prices Feb (0830ET), Housing starts/building permits Feb (0830ET), NY Fed services Mar (0830ET), IP/Cap util Feb (0915ET)
• Coupon issuance: US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond reopen - 912810UJ5 (1300ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $48B 52W & $70B 6W bill auctions (1130ET)

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 03/18 $Benchmark ADB 10Y SOFR+57
• 03/18 $Benchmark LG Energy 3Y, 5Y, 10Y
• 03/18 $Benchmark Bangkok Bank 15NC10 +215a
• 03/18 $Benchmark Korea National Oil 3Y +120a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y
• 03/18 $Benchmark ING 4NC3 +110a, 4NC3 SOFR, 6NC5 +125a, 11NC10 +150a
• $11B Priced Monday

• RES 4: 113-02   2.0% 10-dma envelope 
• RES 3: 112-13   1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 2: 112-01/02 High Mar 4 / 1.382 proj of Jan 13-Feb 7-12 swing
• RES 1: 111-25   High Mar 11  
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-20+ @ 10:27 GMT Mar 18 
• SUP 1: 110-14+ 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 110-12+/00 Low Mar 6 & 13 / High Feb 7 and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 109-13+ Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: 108-21   Low Feb 19 

The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged, a bull cycle remains in play and the current consolidation marks a pause in the uptrend. A bull theme is reinforced by MA studies that are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains have resulted in a print above 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear breach of this level would open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projections. Firm support is 110-00, the Feb 7 high.