EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 2: 1.0553 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0425/0458 20-day EMA / High Dec 30
- PRICE: 1.0274 @ 06:12 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.0226 Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 1.0207/01 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0179 2.0% 10-dma envelope
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and Thursday’s sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late September last year. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.0201, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0425, the 20-day EMA.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.0937 High NOv 5 / 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 2: 1.0730 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0590/97/98 20-day EMA / High Nov 29
- PRICE: 1.0514 @ 06:07 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 1.0425/0335 Low Nov 26 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg
Key short-term resistance in EURUSD to watch is 1.0590, the 20-day EMA. It remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces the short-term importance of this resistance. A clear break of it is required to signal potential for a stronger recovery. This would open 1.0730, the 50-day EMA and allow for a continued unwinding of the oversold trend condition. The medium-term trend direction is down. The bear trigger lies at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low.
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Maintains A Firmer Tone
- RES 4: 136.43 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 14 price swing
- RES 3: 136.20 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 135.92 High Oct 2
- RES 1: 135.46 High Dec 2
- PRICE: 135.00 @ 05:47 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 134.34/133.30 Low Nov 29 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2 131.28 Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 130.58 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price has traded through 134.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A clear break of this level strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 136.20, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support lies at 133.47, the 20-day EMA. First support lies at 134.34, the Nov 29 low.
CHINA: Country Wrap: CAIXIN PMI Services Down for November.
- China’s Caixin PMI Services unexpectedly declined in November to 51.5 from 52 in October. (source: MNI – Market News).
- Hong Kong’s November PMI declined to 51.2 from 52.2 in October. (source: MNI – Market News).
- China: Central Bank Drains Liquidity via OMO. (source: MNI – Market News).
- China equity markets were down today with the CSI300 down -0.20%, Shanghai down -0.07%, Shenzhen down -0.38% and Hang Seng up +0.08%.
- CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1934 Per USD; Estimate 7.2836
- Bonds: all focus on the CGB 10YR again today as it held below the 2.0% level in yield to be at 1.975%.
