US: Trump Approval Rating Marginally Above Water Per New Nate Silver Tracker
Nate Silver's SilverBulletin has launched a new presidential approval tracker, giving President Donald Trump a roughly even net approval rating, though on a downtrend since his relatively strong approval rating on Inauguration Day. The SilverBulletin tracker is particularly useful in light of Disney's recent decision to shutter operations at the analytics site 538.
- Silver notes: "As of launch, Trump is more popular than at a comparable point in his first term, but on something of a downslope, at a 48 percent approval rating and an equal 48 percent disapproval rating."
- Silver adds: "There’s a lot that’s happened recently that may not yet be reflected in the numbers, like Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday, his contentious meeting with Ukrainian president Zelenskyy, and volatility in the stock market associated with on-again, off-again tariff threats. So watch this space: this may be a first test of whether Trump has as high a floor — and as low a ceiling — as he did last time around."
Figure 1: President Trump Approval Rating
Source: SilverBulletin
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EURUSD TECHS: 20-Day EMA Caps Recovery
- RES 4: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0446 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0387 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0386 High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.0379 @ 16:36 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 1.0221 61.8% retracement of the Jan 3 low-high range
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9947 76.4% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - Jul 18’23 bull leg
EURUSD recovered further from the Monday low, however, for now, gains are considered corrective as the 20-day EMA capped the recovery. Monday’s fresh cycle low, highlights a resumption of the downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and attention is on 1.0138, the 1.764 projection of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing. Clearance of this level would open 1.0031, the 2.00 projection.
POLITICAL RISK: US Federal Layoffs Likely If Not Enough Quitters - WaPo
- The Washington Post (in full here) writes that federal government layoffs are likely if too few choose to quit.
- “Workers have until Thursday to decide whether to take an offer to resign now and be paid through the end of September.”
- A reminder that public sector payrolls growth has been providing an outsized impact on total nonfarm payrolls growth for some time, although that has been coming from the much larger state and especially local government sectors. There are around 3.0m federal employees, 5.5m state and almost 15m local.
- As such, whilst overall government job creation averaged a monthly 32k in Q4 for close to double the 18k averaged in 2019 and treble the 9k averaged through 2017-18, federal-specific job creation has averaged 3k in Q4 for no discernible change from the 2k in 2019.
- Quit rates are much lower in the public sector than the private sector, at 0.8% as of today's report for Dec (and just 0.4% specifically for federal workers) compared to 2.2% for private, suggesting layoffs could be likely.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance Update: Foundry JV Guidance Update
$14.8B corporate issuance has launched so far, to expand once Foundry JV 5pt launch
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 02/04 $3B *EIB WNG 10Y +60
- 02/04 $2.5B #NextEra Capital Energy $1.5B 30.5NC5.25 6.375%, $1B 30.5NC10.25 6.5%
- 02/04 $2B *L-Bank $1B 2Y SOF+30, $1B 5Y SOFR+47
- 02/04 $1.5B #BNG Bank 3Y SOFR+37
- 02/04 $1.25B #BNY Mellon 6NC5 +62
- 02/04 $1.1B #National Rural Utilities $600M 3Y +52, $500M 5Y +67
- 02/04 $1B #Altria $500M 3Y +67, $500M 10Y +117
- 02/04 $1B #National Fuel Gas $00M 5Y +118, $500M 10Y +147
- 02/04 $800M #GATX $500M 10Y +102, $300M 2054 Tap +113
- 02/04 $650M #Valero Energy 5Y +87
- 02/04 $Benchmark Foundry JV 6Y +120, 8Y +150, 11Y +160, 12Y +170, 14Y +180
- Expected to issue Wednesday:
- 02/05 $1B KFW 4% 2026 TAP SOFR+20
- 02/05 $Benchmark IDA 10Y SOFR+63a
