European curves steepened Tuesday, with short-end German instruments outperforming.
- Core FI fell to the session's weakest levels in morning trade as the two day rally in equities appeared to extend into a third.
- But the equity rally faded in the afternoon, with oil prices also fading, helping core FI fully recover (though also reversing earlier periphery / semi-core EGB spread tightening).
- The Bundestag approved the much anticipated German fiscal reforms including a loosening of the debt brake, though this appeared to have been well-anticipated as Bunds saw only limited and temporary weakness following the news.
- Comments by ECB's Rehn in an MNI Connect event suggested that there is a high bar to him not voting for a cut in April (markets still have it better than 50/50 implied). In data, the Eurozone trade surplus was slightly larger than expected in January, while German ZEW jumped to the highest in 3 years (corresponding to the DAX equity rally and above fiscal developments).
- The German curve twist steepened on the day, with yields down through the 10Y segment, while the UK's bear flattened through the 10Y segment (though 2s30s was higher). Periphery/semi-core spreads closed a little wider.
- We get final February Eurozone inflation data Wednesday, but the week's main events in Europe are in the UK Thursday with labour market data and the BoE decision.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.3bps at 2.176%, 5-Yr is down 1.2bps at 2.46%, 10-Yr is down 0.8bps at 2.81%, and 30-Yr is up 0.5bps at 3.121%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.8bps at 4.201%, 5-Yr is up 0.7bps at 4.295%, 10-Yr is up 0.5bps at 4.643%, and 30-Yr is up 1.1bps at 5.229%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.8bps at 110.8bps / French OAT up 0.9bps at 68.3bps