EM CEEMEA CREDIT: TURKEY: Higher rate feeding through
Turkiye (TURKEY:B1pos/BB-/BB-) Higher rates feeding through * Dunya note that since the beginning ...
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EQUITIES: EU Bank put spread
SX7E 188/178ps, bought for 1.95 in 6k.
COMMODITIES: Bearish WTI Future Trend Intact Despite Latest Gains
Despite recent gains, a bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact. However, a key pivot resistance at $69.12, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and open $70.98, the Feb 25 high. For bears, a reversal lower would expose the bear trigger at $64.85, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $63.73 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. A clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and last week’s resumption of the bull cycle reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last Thursday’s fresh trend high reinforces the bull theme and sights are on $3079.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Support is at $2964.9, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude up $0.29 or +0.42% at $69.4
- Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.28% at $3.925
- Gold spot up $10.4 or +0.35% at $3021.36
- Copper up $4.1 or +0.81% at $513.15
- Silver up $0.24 or +0.72% at $33.2493
- Platinum up $8.13 or +0.83% at $983.93
BUNDS: /SWAPS: Either Side Of Unchanged, Supply & Profit Taking Eyed
German ASWs vs. 3-month Euribor trade 0.5bp narrower to 0.5bp wider.
- Perhaps some profit taking evident in popular long front end vs. short long end ASW curve plays given the lack of surprise within the DFA’s Q2 funding plan (released Monday) and growing realisation that issuance increases to fund the jump in infrastructure and defence spending will start phasing in from H225.
- Supply also likely impacting, with the DFA selling Bobls this morning.
- While fundamentals seem to still screen bearish for the long end of the ASW curve, already short positioning, the lack of an immediate ramp up in issuance (which we highlighted a couple of weeks ago) and lingering tariff threats present some clear risks to further tightening in the immediate term.
- ING note that “a risk-off reaction to the coming tariff announcements could help Bunds to perform further versus swaps. It might even go as far as to help a re-flattening of curves”. However, over the longer run, they still think that “steeper curves with long-end yields moving towards a 3% handle are more likely.”
