Despite widespread discontent with the state of the Turkish economy, the opposition group of parties set to challenger incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's right-wing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its allies only holds a slender lead in latest opinion polling from Al-Monitor/Premise.
- Party polling: AKP: 28%, Republican People's Party (CHP): 24%, Good Party (IYI): 9%, People's Democratic Party (HDP): 4%, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP): 4%, Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA): 3%, Others: 7%, Would not vote: 21%.
- By Bloc: Anti-Erdogan opposition (CHP, IYI, DEVA): 36%, Pro-Erdogan parties (AKP, MHP): 32%. Poll shows that 59% of respondents thought Turkey was 'going in the wrong direction', compared to 24% saying the right direction and 17% unsure.
- Joyce Karam at Al-Monitor: "Despite thin edge for opposition, majority of Turkey's public is not satisfied with the bloc running against Erdogan. Only 21% of the respondents are "very satisfied" with the opposition’s performance while 11% are "somewhat satisfied."
- Decision of the Kurdish-interest HDP could prove crucial. If Kurdish voters can be convinced to back CHP-led alliance in significant numbers it could significantly damage Erdogan's re-election chances come June 2023.
Chart 1. Opinion Poll: "Would you say that things in Turkey are headed in the right or wrong direction?", %
Source: Al-Monitor/Premise, fieldwork 30 Aug-30-Nov, 994 respondents.
