The Economist has relaunched their 2024 presidential election forecast model after a period of inactively following President Biden's withdrawal from the race. The model shows the race as an effective toss-up which leans slightly towards Vice President Kamala Harris.

• The model forecast differs from election analysis Nate Silver’s model, which shows Harris with a relatively more bullish 55.7% probability of winning the election, although former President Donald Trump has strengthened slightly in recent days on the back of some more favourable polling.
• Other key election forecast models from the Hill/DDHQ and 538 remain offline, awaiting more polling from swing states.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Forecast

Source: The Economist