US TSYS: Tsys Yields Make New Ytd Lows Following Tariffs Headlines
Mar-04 00:20
Tsys had another strong session, yields closed at ytd lows after US President Trump ruled out further reprieve from tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico slated to take effect March 4 and ordered the tariff on China doubled to 20%, while mixed ISM data also pushed yields lower. TU closed +0-00⅞ at 103-16⅜ and we have since climbed another +3 to 103-19⅜, while TY closed +10 to 111-13 and have also climbed +10 post the close to trade at 111-23.
In tsys options there was continued buying of options targeting a 10yr yields below 4% with weeks. There was also a large 2s5s block steepener post the close for a DV01 of 490k
In cash tsys, curves twist flattened, with the belly of the curve outperforming, yields closed 3-6bps richer. The 2yr closed -3.9bps at 3.956%, while the 10yr closed -5.3bps at 4.156%. The 2s10s curve -1.4bps at 20.139.
The moves have continued this morning in Asia, with yields trading another 1-3bps lower.
Trump has signed an order to raise the tariff on China to 20% from 10%, according to a post on X from the White House’s Rapid Response account, per BBG.
ISM Prices paid surge: 62.4 (cons 56.0, 7 responses vs 59 for the headline index) after 54.9 - highest prices paid since Jun 2022 having increased since Nov (when Trump won the presidential election).
Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 gained some traction vs. this morning's levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 at -1.8bp (-1.4bp), May'25 at -10.2bp (-7.9bp), Jun'25 at -26.0bp (-22.7bp), Jul'25 at -35.3bp (-32.4bp).
There is little on the calendar today. The Fed's John Williams will speak shortly.