EM ASIA CREDIT: Muthoot Finance (MUTHIN, Ba1/BB+/BB) upgraded

• RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg           
• RES 3: 134.06 High Dec 23 ‘24  
• RES 2: 133.46/71 High Feb 28 / 5 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 132.94 High Mar 3                
• PRICE: 1323.44 @ 05:39 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 131.79 Low Mar 3  
• SUP 2: 131.26 Low Feb 19 and a bear trigger            
• SUP 3: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger   

Bund futures on Monday pulled back from their recent highs and the contract remains below last week’s high. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose the next key support at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level would be viewed as an important short-term technical break. Two important resistance points remain intact for now; 133.46, the Feb 28 high, and 133.71, the Feb 5 high.

• China has reacted to the imposition of further tariffs from the US by announcing 15% tariffs on US exports and place 10 American companies on the ‘unreliable list’ (source:  BBG).
• China Gezhouba Group Company Limited (CGGC) on Monday signed two major contracts worth a total of 557 million U.S. dollars with Kuwait's Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW).  The contracts cover the construction and maintenance of road networks, infrastructure, irrigation reservoirs, and substations in South Saad Al-Abdullah New City, located about 25 kilometers southwest of the capital Kuwait City. (Source: Xinhua)
• China’s main bourses were mostly down today with Hang Seng -0.45%, CSI 300 -0.32%, Shanghai -0.05% and Shenzhen bucking the trend up +0.15%
• CNY:  Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1739 Per USD; Estimate 7.2782
• Bonds were better bid with the CGB 10YR at 1.76%

Q4 GDP prints on Wednesday, including productivity, and Bloomberg consensus is forecasting a 0.6% quarterly rise bringing the annual rate to 1.3%. This would be the fastest quarterly rate since Q4 2022. The RBA believes the risks to growth are to the downside and expects Q4 rose 1.1% y/y but GDP should improve to 2.4% y/y by end-2025. With it seeing growth as “subdued” and productivity still a problem, the Q4 national accounts will be monitored closely.

• Forecasts on Bloomberg range from +0.4% q/q to +1.0% q/q resulting in annual growth of 1.1% to 1.7%. ANZ is in line with consensus at 0.6% q/q, whereas NAB, CBA and Westpac are slightly stronger forecasting 0.7% q/q.
• Q4 data suggest that household consumption should be faster with spending volumes rising 1.4% y/y up from 0.2% y/y in Q3.
• Public demand will make a lower contribution at 0.2pp with 0.1pp from government consumption and 0.1pp from GFCF. In Q3, these components contributed 0.3pp and 0.4pp respectively.
• Private investment is likely to be soft after capex fell 0.2% q/q and construction rose only 0.5% q/q. Q3 could be revised up though.
• The ABS said that net exports contributed 0.2pp up from 0.1pp, which was more than expected. This is the third straight quarterly positive.
• Inventories were flat on the quarter after detracting 0.4pp from Q3 quarterly GDP growth.