POLITICAL RISK: Rubio-'Weeks Not Months' To Know If Russia Serious About Peace
Apr-04 11:46
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaking on talks with Russia about a ceasefire in Ukraine, Rubio says that "We will know in a matter of weeks, not months, if Russia is serious about peace." Rubio: "If it's a delaying tactic, Trump is not interested in that...If Russia is not serious about peace, we will have to re-evaluate where we stand." Claims that he is still "optimistic" on the prospect of a deal.
- Alex Marquardt at CNN: "Rubio just told reporters he met with [Russian negotiator Kirill] Dmitriev in Washington as well. "None of it was threatening...It was more an explanation of "this is our timeline" and at some point it will be clear whether you want peace or you don't want peace. And that time is coming. It's pretty short." Rubio: "Hopefully [Dmitriev will] take that message back to Moscow and it'll make clear that we need to begin to see real progress or we'll have to conclude that they're not interested in peace." No other Russia talks planned, Rubio told me."
- Separately, Rubio claims that "markets will adjust" to US tariffs.
- On talks with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen at the NATO foreign minsiters' meeting in Brussels, Rubio says "Denmark should focus on the fact that Greenlanders don't want to be part of Denmark", and that "Greenlanders will make their own decision". (Note: the recent Greenlandic election returned a gov't strongly opposed to US ownership of Greenland.)
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat
Mar-05 11:42
- In FX, EURUSD traded sharply higher Tuesday to a fresh short-term cycle high, and the pair is climbing again, today. This week’s gains have resulted in a clear breach of key short-term resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high, marking a continuation of the reversal that started Feb 3. 1.0677, 50.0% of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg, has been pierced. Sights are on 1.0728 next, the Nov 11 ‘24 high. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0447, the 50-day EMA. First support is 1.0529, the Feb 26 high and a recent breakout level.
- The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and this week’s strong gains reinforce this theme. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. Sights are on a climb towards 1.2924, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2554, the 50-day EMA.
- USDJPY traded to a fresh cycle low Tuesday, but has recovered, and the pair is trading inside its recent range. The trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would pave the way for an extension towards 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key S/T resistance is 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.
STIR: BLOCK: May'25/Aug'25 SOFR Midcurve Put Strip
Mar-05 11:37
- Total +8,000 0QK5/0QQ5 95.62 put strip, 2.0 total db, ref 96.46, from 0619 to 0621ET
STIR: Holding Swing Off Dovish Extremes, ISM Services and Beige Book Ahead
Mar-05 11:33
- Fed Funds implied rates consolidate yesterday’s lift off recent dovish extremes, aided by spillover from German fiscal plans plus Lutnick hinting at tariff relief for Canada and Mexico (growth negative tariff impacts had outweighed the inflationary angle in recent sessions).
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1.5bp Mar, 11.5bp May, 27.5bp Jun, 37.5bp Jul and 73bp Dec.
- The 73bp of cuts for 2025 has swung from as many as 85bp yesterday.
- Data headlines today’s docket with no scheduled Fedspeak after NY Fed’s Williams yesterday reiterated that he sees mon pol as “modestly restrictive” and didn’t see a current need to change policy. He also noted inflation expectations are to be watched closely, adding to similar comments from St Louis Fed’s Musalem on Friday.
- The main focus is on the ISM Services February report whilst the Beige Book will be watched for anecdotal updates, especially concerning tariff impacts, ahead of the Mar 19 FOMC. It’ll be the first Beige Book since Trump’s inauguration.
- Beige Book “tariff” count: Zero mentions in the Oct 23 report, 11 in Dec 4 and 23 in Jan 15. From January’s update: “More contacts were optimistic about the outlook for 2025 than were pessimistic about it, though contacts in several Districts expressed concerns that changes in immigration and tariff policy could negatively affect the economy.”
