Bloomberg reporting that according to a poll carried out by the Social Research Foundation, the electoral prospects of the governing African National Congress (ANC) are closely linked to the continued leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa. It should be noted that the poll was conducted in July and only released on 1 Dec.

• Of the respondents who stated they support the ANC, 48% stated that Ramaphosa was a 'very important' reason for their support. Moreover, among all ANC supporters, 39% stated that they would back a Ramaphosa-led breakaway party if the President left the ANC, with another 15% stating that they would switch support to another non-ANC party (see chart below).
• SRF: “Should he depart the party its prospects for sustaining its majority in 2024 are not very good and in the aftermath of a national defeat its support levels amongst registered voters could well slip to between 30% and 40%.”
• Ramaphosa remains under significant pressure after an advisory panel found that Ramaphosa may have violated his oath of office in relation to the 'Phala Phala' scandal involving a robbery at his private farm in 2020.
• The ANC remains riven by significant factional divisions, with the most prominent being those loyal to Ramaphosa and those supportive of former President Jacob Zuma. A formal split of the party ahead of the 2024 general election is a low-probability, high-impact scenario that could see power change hands in South Africa for the first time in its democratic history.

Source: Social Research Foundation, Bloomberg