Betting markets Predicit and Smarkets are both showing that Republican control of the House of Representatives and Democrat control of the Senate is now the most likely outcome in November's midterms.

• Both charts show a significant collapse in Republican chances of controlling the Senate beginning in late July when former President Donald Trump endorsed candidates in key Senate races in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Georgia began performing poorly in polling.
• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has managed expectations of a GOP victory in the Senate. He said this week: “I think it’s going to be very tight. We have a 50-50 nation. And I think when this Senate race smoke clears, we’re likely to have a very, very close Senate still, with us up slightly or the Democrats up slightly.”

Figure 1: Control of Congress (Smarkets)

Figure 2: Control of Congress (Predictit)